Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet on Game 7 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic.
Magic at Cavaliers (-3.5): O/U 194.5
Game 7. The best two words in sports. The only Game 7 we receive in the first round has been a slugfest between the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers and that’s expected to continue with an opening total of 195.5.
The home team has won every home game and as someone who cashes +2.08 units if Cleveland wins this game, I hope that continues, and believe it will, but six of the last nine Game 7 winners have been the road team!
The NBA has had 13 Game 7’s since 2020 and the average combined score of those games is 200.3 points with six of those combining for 196 points or less.
Neither team scored more than 29 points in any quarter of Game 6 and that’s something that could happen again. Game 7 Unders are one of the most profitable angles in all of playoff basketball and that’s what I’m attacking here.
Both teams have struggled to score on the road and overall in the series. Cleveland has reached 100 points once in the series (104 points in Game 5 at home), while Orlando scored 83, 86, and 103 points in the three road trips to Cleveland.
Paolo Banchere (25.2 PPG) and Donovan Mitchell (27.0 PPG) are about the only two players who can be trusted with every possession, while Franz Wagner (21.0 PPG) Darius Garland (15.3 PPG), and Jalen Suggs (15.5 PPG) have had their moments in the series and likely be the secondary options.
The Cavs expect to get Jarrett Allen back who’s listed as questionable with a rib injury. Allen’s arrival would be well-timed and much-needed as Cleveland was searching for offense late in the Game 6 road loss that Donovan Mitchell dropped 50 points in (all 18 of Cleveland’s 4Q points). Allen led the Cavs in points and rebounds in Games 3 and 4.
For role players such as Cole Anthony, Max Strus, Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, Jonathan Issac, and Markelle Fultz, for example, I don’t expect many shot opportunities for that bunch. I recommend looking at Unders on those players because that six-man group went 12-of-34 from the field in Game 6 (35.2%).
I posted this at Under 195.5 on X at -110 odds on the opening line and would play this down to 194 for 3 units.
Pick: Cavaliers vs Magic Under 195.5 (3u)
Season Record: 54-44 (55.1%) +7.87 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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