Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet on the Nuggets at Timberwolves Game 6 matchup.
Nuggets at Timberwolves (-2.5): O/U 206.5
The Denver Nuggets have rattled off three straight victories against the Timberwolves, including two in Minnesota. All of the pressure is on Minnesota as Denver has figured out what plagued them in Games 1 and 2.
The Nuggets got out to first-quarter and first-half leads in the past three games after losing the first quarter in six straight outings to start the postseason.
Minnesota used its size advantage in Games 1 and 2, but Denver won the points in the paint battle the past three games, earned the rebounding battle edge in two of three, and took the free-throw edge cleanly in all three.
Minnesota is shooting 69% from the free-throw line in the last three games and 33.3% from three compared to Denver who is knocking down 46.8% of its triples and 83% of their freebies in that span. The Nuggets are the hotter shooting team and the more experienced squad with a coach who’s shown the ability to make changes on the fly.
Unless Anthony Edwards goes nuclear, I like the chances Denver wins in Minnesota again. I don’t have confidence that Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, or Nickeil Alexander-Walker for example will have much success in the second half of this game when crunch time rolls around.
I played the Nuggets +2.5 at -112 odds on FanDuel and would go down to the ML, which I sprinkled as well.
Pick: Nuggets +2.5 (1u)
Season Record: 71-55 (56.3%) +13.72 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
2u: Denver Nuggets to win the Western Conference (-115)
1u: Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Finals (+275)
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