Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet on Jayson Tatum and Payton Pritchard in Game 5 between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Jayson Tatum O/U 2.5 Made Three-Pointers vs. Cavs
Did you know that Jayson Tatum has made two or fewer three-pointers in all nine playoff games this postseason? This bet has been trending over the past two days, and I for one, believe it is coming to an end tonight.
Tatum is finding his groove with back-to-back 33-point games in 42 and 44 minutes on 50 field goal attempts (25 FGA each). The Celtics’ star shot 2-for-8 from deep in both of those wins and averages over six three-point attempts per game in the postseason.
Boston will likely look to put Cleveland to bed early and Tatum posting a playoff-high in triples made seems more likely as he won’t be picky with his shot selection. I wouldn’t take Tatum’s Over on Points tonight, as he will likely play 32-38 minutes, but his three-pointers prop is more juiced to the Over in weeks.
Tatum is 8-of-27 from three (29.6%) when he plays 39 or fewer minutes this postseason (5 games) compared to 7-of-30 (23.3%) when he plays 40-plus minutes (4 games). The fewer minutes the better for this prop tonight.
I played Tatum Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers at -125 odds on DraftKings and would go out to -150. I like the 4-plus made triples for +175 or better. I got +210 on FanDuel.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 Made 3’s (1u)
Payton Pritchard O/U 8.5 Points vs. Cavs
Payton Pritchard’s scoring has gone up from 4.4 points per game in the first round versus Miami to 11.3 points per game in this series against Cleveland in basically the same minutes (23 to 22.8).
The Celtics’ main bench guard is shooting 51.1% from the field and 45.5% from three on 7.8 field goal attempts and 5.0 triples. Pritchard averaged 4.8 FGA and 2.2 3PA in the first round as a comparison, so he’s feeling his shot and it’s showing.
Boston trusts Pritchard in this series and with 16, 13, 5, and 11 points over the past four games, this should be another double-digit scoring performance with the series presumably closing in Boston (-14.5 favorites).
His minutes could rise here as they did with a playoff-high 27 minutes in Game 5’s closeout win at home versus Miami (7 points on 2-of-8). I played Pritchard to go Over 8.5 Points for +100 odds on DraftKings and would go to Over 9.5 or the 10-plus alternative. I sprinkled 12-plus points for +230 odds on DraftKings.
Pick: Payton Pritchard Over 8.5 Points (1u)
Season Record: 68-55 (55.2%) +10.72 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
2u: Denver Nuggets to win the Western Conference (-115)
1u: Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Finals (+275)
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