Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bets for the weekend of NBA playoff betting.
Knicks at Pacers (-5.5): O/U 215.5
The Knicks and Pacers meet for Game 6 in Indiana and just like Game 5, I am going back to the well on the home team in the first quarter.
New York came through in the first quarter for us in Game 5 (38-32) and the home team has won the first quarter in four out of five meetings in this series with a tie in the other outing.
There is no reason to hop off the home team in the first quarter of an elimination game. Indiana will come out playing fast and aggressive, so I played the Pacers’ First Quarter spread of -1.5 at -114 odds on FanDuel and would go to -2.5 for +100 or better.
Pick: Pacers 1Q -1.5 (1.5u)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 31.5 Points vs. Mavericks
The Thunder are down 3-2 and going to Dallas for Game 6, so who are you gonna call? Not Ghostbusters, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Thunder’s guard has scored at least 29 points in all five games of this series (31.4 PPG) and attempted at least 19 field goal attempts, including 22 and 27 in the past two contests (23.0 FGA per game).
The MVP runner-up has been the No. 1 priority on offense and posting a 31.3% usage rating in the series and that has been steady throughout the postseason. SGA has played at least 41 minutes in the last four games, plus 43 in Game 5, which should increase to 44-46 minutes in Game 6.
I played SGA Over 31.5 Points at -104 odds on FanDuel and sprinkled 35-plus points at +185 odds as well.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (1u), SGA 35+ Points (0.5u)
Timberwolves at Nuggets (-4): O/U 198.0
Denver and Minnesota meet for Game 7, so those who follow me know what I already played -- the Under.
Game 7 Unders are one of the most profitable angles in the NBA postseason and despite going 0-1 this year in Cavs versus Magic (Under 195.5 -- finished at 200), I am running it back here.
In five out of six games this series, the losing team has failed to reach 100 points with the winner going well over that in every outing, but that will likely change. The average score in the series has been 202.3 points per game and 200.0 in Denver’s home games.
Minnesota has struggled from the free-throw going 71.9% and 68.9% in Denver this series. I believe that will catch up with Minnesota here as three-point shots will be a rarity in this Game 7.
I grabbed the Under 199 and 198 at -115 odds last night and today. I’d go down to 197 and like the Nuggets to win. FanDuel has Denver ML and Under 204 for +110 odds, which I like as well.
Pick: Under 198.0 (2u)
Season Record: 71-56 (55.9%) +12.62 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
2u: Denver Nuggets to win the Western Conference (-115)
1u: Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Finals (+275)
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