The second round of the playoffs is underway with one game in the books for each series. I spoke to PointsBet Sportsbook analyst Michael Korn to find out how the futures markets moved and what bettors are thinking about the NBA playoffs so far, including some series props with interesting action.
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Boston Celtics reached +125 to win the Eastern Conference as the favorites to emerge from the East prior to a Game 1 loss to Milwaukee. The Bucks regained home-court advantage in the series and took a 1-0 lead in a convincing victory on Sunday, which flipped the series price odds heading into the second matchup. The Celtics opened as -200 favorites with the Bucks at +160 to advance but Boston fell to +115 after Game 1 while Milwaukee is now listed at -135 to win the series.
The Celtics still received the majority of support at PointsBet Sportsbook, with 53% of the bet count and 56% of the handle on Boston to advance, but Korn noted that marks a shift towards Milwaukee compared to the pre-series action.
“More than 70% of the bet count and handle was on the Celtics but both moved in a good bit off of Game 1,” Korn said. “People were not expecting the Bucks to look as good as they did and think they’ll get out of this series after Game 1.
These teams are the top two in both bet count and handle in the Eastern Conference Championship market, with the Bucks leading in both categories. Milwaukee briefly dropped to +175 after Game 1, the team’s lowest price of the season, but went back to +200 after Miami’s win. Boston jumped to +250 before inching back down to +225 and the Heat are the Eastern Conference favorites at +160.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
This series already experienced some significant line movement before the first game was even played. More than 50% of the bets came in on Philadelphia but 83% of the handle was placed on Miami prior to Game 1 of the series. When the news of Joel Embiid’s concussion and orbital fracture first broke, Miami’s series price jumped significantly from the opener of -180.
“When the news first came out, the Heat went all the way to -500 but when it came out that he may be able to play in Game 3, we shifted the price back down to -375,” Korn said. “I think the updates are definitely why people are thinking they should take the Sixers bet. Obviously nothing is guaranteed but even if the Sixers lose the first two and get Embiid back they’d have a chance, and that’s probably why the series price isn’t bigger.”
The vastly differing odds for this series shows how fluid the series price markets can be, which opens up value for a smart bettor who acts quickly to capitalize on any overreactions in the odds.
“Look out for things over-adjusting game-by-game, especially the series prices,” Korn said. Obviously it’s important to keep an eye on injuries but don’t overreact when guys have a chance to come back and look for buyback on the other side.”
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are a popular pick to advance past the Grizzlies, with 77% of bets and 94% of the handle on the lower-seeded Warriors. Memphis covered the spread but dropped a tight Game 1 at home on Sunday despite Draymond Green being ejected, and the line shifted significantly towards Golden State. After opening as -255 favorites to win the series, the Warriors moved to -555 heading into Game 2.
“The splits were slightly less going into Game 1 but still overwhelmingly Golden State money, and now it’s all Warriors action,” Korn said.
This series has some interesting prop markets up, including the odds to lead the series in points and three-pointers. Steph Curry is the most commonly bet player in both markets by a wide margin, garnering more than 90% of the bet count and handle for each. Despite the heavy liability on Curry, his odds actually moved down from -117 to +170 for points leader after Game 1 and stayed steady at -125 to lead the series in three-pointers. Jordan Poole and Ja Morant moved up on the odds board for the points market to +220 and +120, respectively.
“It might be an over-adjustment on the Poole breakout and if you like Curry, I’d bet him or Morant now,” Korn said.
I’m personally staying off the points market, but there could be value laying the -125 with Curry in the three-pointers leader market. Poole and Curry each hit five threes in Game 1 but Poole came off the bench. Poole’s bench role could continue in this series and even if he gets plenty of minutes, it’s a big ask to bet on him to come off the bench and out-pace the league’s all-time leading three-point shooter over a full series.
The Jordan Poole hype isn’t limited to the series props market, as he actually leads all players in Finals MVP bets at PointsBet Sportsbook. Leading in bet count is one thing, as the public tends to bet on players with longer odds in futures markets like this, but Poole is also second in handle placed in this market, only behind another Golden State teammate.
Surprisingly, the leader in Finals MVP handle isn’t Curry, but instead Klay Thompson leads all players despite being listed with +6600 odds to win the award. That makes Thompson a big liability for PointsBet as bettors continue to buy into the comeback narrative.
Curry is only ninth in bets taken and sixth in handle for the award, with Chris Paul, Tyler Herro and Devin Booker rounding out the top five in both markets. Korn was surprised to see Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo omitted despite owning the best odds to win the award.
“People are forgetting about the top two guys on the board, it’s strange there isn’t much handle or bet count on either,” Korn said. “A +400 or +500 future bet seems like nothing compared to a +6600 with Klay, but there could be just as much value in the price if the odds move a lot.”
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
This Round 2 series has some two-way action at PointsBet Sportsbook, with more than 50% of bets coming in on Dallas but over 70% of the handle on Phoenix to advance. While Korn noted that bettors like the underdogs, PointsBet will still be rooting for Dallas in this series as Phoenix is the most-bet team to win the Western Conference in both bet count and handle.
I took one series prop prior to Game 1 with Luka Doncic listed at +320 to lead the series in rebounds. The odds haven’t yet been reposted but Doncic racked up 12 boards in Game 1, with no other player posting a double-double in the game.
Despite the heavy action on Phoenix, Memphis is actually a bigger liability for PointsBet Sportsbook because the Grizzlies have the longest price on the board, while the Suns were listed with a short price all season as clear contenders.
The Suns are a popular pick for the NBA Finals Matchup market, with a championship rematch against Milwaukee as the most-bet matchup. The odds for that matchup moved down significantly after Game 1 as people regained confidence in Milwaukee. A Boston vs. Dallas matchup would be the book’s largest liability due to the long odds of that outcome, but the matchup with the highest percentage of the market’s total handle is Celtics vs. Warriors, which is also a big liability for PointsBet.
