The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
John Collins O/U 13.5 Points vs. Knicks
With all of the offensive talent on the Hawks, led by star guard Trae Young, it is easy to get lost in the shuffle. That is what John Collins has been during the season and postseason -- lost in the shuffle.
In Game 4, he came out of his shell for 22 points, eight rebounds and one assist in 29 minutes. In the regular-season, Collins averaged 29.3 minutes in 63 games for 17.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists (26.2 PRA).
Collins’ numbers have dipped in the postseason, but that’s due to his donut in Game 2. He finished with zero points and two rebounds over 15 minutes in the Hawks’ 101-92 loss.
Outside of that outlier performance, Collins averages 16.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game (24.0 PRA). Collins has recorded 19, 2, 22 and 31 PRA in this postseason series versus the Knicks, going Over his Points and PRA totals in his last two.
NBC’s model projects Collins to score 14.4 points in 27.0 minutes. When he’s predicted to play 29-30 minutes, his point total jumps to 15.5-16.0 points. The model projects just a hair over the 20.5 PRA prop at 27 minutes.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
[[ad:athena]]
An interesting trend I found on Collins and his minutes. The key number is the 29 minutes he saw in Game 4. When Collins plays between 29-40 minutes this season and postseason, he hit the Over on 13.5 Points in 27-of-36 games, a 75% success rate per props.cash.
Collins has hit the Over 20.5 PRA in 31-of-36 games -- that is an 86.1% hit rate props.cash.
As long as Collins plays 24 minutes, he has a 70%-plus hit rate or better to his 13.5 Points prop -- the same for his PRA line.
It is safe to say I love both plays.
However, selecting one of the two props, it is obvious that Collins will not hit the Over on his PRA total without hitting the Over on his points total in most scenarios.
With that being said, the points prop is the right play here, especially with plenty of Hawks having rebound potential.
This number is too low and given the importance of this game, it is easy to forget about Collins and roll with Young, Derrick Rose or Julius Randle.
While all three previously mentioned players have their appeal to me and the public, I like the value on Collins’ Points and PRA props as he can score upwards of 20 points alone.
Collins has faced the Knicks seven times this season and recorded 18, 19, 18, 12, 0, 14 and 22 points in that order. He hit the Over 5-of-7 (71.4%) meetings and finished at 12 in one of the two Unders.
Two important factors to point out in Collins’ Game 4 performance was his three-point shooting and aggressiveness.
Collins had not attempted a free-throw all series and went to the charity stripe eight times, making all eight freebies in Game 4. From three, Collins went 2-of-5 (40%) but made two triples for the third time this series, in all the Hawks’ wins.
That should call for more shot attempts and touches for the 23-year-old forward out of Wake Forest. If you are squeamish of the PRA line, play the Over 13.5 Points. That is what I am rolling with, as I believe it is the correct play of the two.
Collins has gone Over on both props in five-of-seven versus the Knicks this season and I like the chance Collins goes for 14-plus for the sixth time.
Pick: John Collins Over 13.5 Points (1u) - playable at 14.5 or Over 20.5 PRA
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
