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The Utah Jazz travel to Memphis for Game 3 of their first-round series vs the Grizzlies, with the series tied at 1-1. The Grizzlies have been a very tough opponent for the Jazz so far.
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-5) Total: 224
The Memphis Grizzlies have given the Utah Jazz all they can handle to start this series. The Grizzlies won Game 1 going away. The Jazz blew a 20 point half-time lead in Game 2 but were still able to pull away in the fourth quarter of a game in which Grizzlies guard Ja Morant scored 47 points. The stakes will be high tonight in the grindhouse.
The Utah Jazz were the best team against the spread in the first half of the NBA season. The second-half of the season was a different story. The Jazz were 16-20 (44%) ATS after the All-Star break, going 7-10 ATS on the road. The Grizzlies on the other hand, were excellent after the break, going 24-16 (60%) ATS in the second half the season, to with an 11-7 (61%) ATS record on their home court.
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The Utah Jazz opened this game up as 5-point road favorites, and that has moved up to 5.5. There is one shop reporting a 5-figure bet on the Grizzlies at +5.5. Most shops have moved back to -5. The money line on PointsBet opened up at -216, got as high as -236, and is now sitting at -200. I would keep an eye on this money line throughout the day. If it drops below -195 it could signal sharp money hitting the Grizzlies. The Total opened up at 224.5, moved to 224 and is now back to 224.5. The Over has easily cashed in the first two games of this series.
The Grizzlies match up very well with the Jazz, and if they can stay out of foul trouble, they could regain the lead in the series. Donovan Mitchell is clearly still struggling with his ankle injury from April. Public bettors were left impressed with what they saw from Ja Morant on Wednesday night, so they are backing the Grizzlies at home in Game 3. Trendy underdogs are always a dangerous bet.
Edge Finder Tip: In this year’s playoffs, games in which the home team is the underdog the Over has cashed 75% of the time.
Edge: Over 224
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