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Bam Adebayo O/U 31.5 PRA vs. Celtics
Bam Adebayo‘s having a fantastic offensive and defensive season, making his presence felt on both sides of the court.
Adebayo has scored 20 or more points in three out of the last four meetings with the Celtics and hit three-plus assists in three straight, and I cannot forget to mention three double-doubles in three of the past five versus Boston.
NBC’s player prop model projects a big game from Adebayo, predicting 22.4 points, 14.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists for 38.1 PRA, well Over his 31.5 PRA prop.
He is 5-1 to the Over 31.5 PRA (83.3%), with the only Under a 31 PRA performance.
Big Bam has scored at least 16 points in every game this season and 20 or more in four of six games (66.7%). The model loves his Over 18.5 points and Over 10.5 rebounds, bringing “great” or “excellent” value to his props.
Adebayo averages 20.8 points, 13.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game for 36.1 PRA, well Over his 31.5 PRA number. You can get rid of his assists and play Points + Rebounds at 29.5, but Adebayo has oddly found success passing against Boston.
In his career, Adebayo has two or more assists in nine out of the last 10 meetings with the Celtics, including 20 in the previous five games (18 in L4), per statmuse.
Bam averaged 19.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists in three meetings with Boston last season (32.0 PRA).
Boston allows the ninth-most assists per game to centers (3.59) and the 10th-most rebounds per game (16.70). Adebayo scored 15 or more points in the last five meetings with Boston and 20-plus in three of the past four.
Adebayo has gotten to the free-throw line at least five times in every game this season. The Celtics allow 25.4 free-throw attempts per game and 20.0 makes per contest -- both ranking last in the NBA (or the most allowed).
The Celtics permit the most rebounds in the NBA (51.5), the second-most points per game (114.6) and the seventh-most points in the paint per game (48.8).
Adebayo should feast in every way, scoring, rebounding and passing versus Boston.
I got this Over 31.5 at -105 odds -- I would play it out to 33.5 PRA or the Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 31.5 PRA (1.5u)
LeBron James O/U 38.5 PRA vs. Thunder
Were you ready to fade one of the best players on the planet?
Well, he is announced OUT for this matchup.
I hope so, but I do not anticipate a sweat here. LeBron James and the Lakers take on the Oklahoma City Thunder for the second time this season.
In the first meeting with OKC, Los Angeles won 123-115, but James did not play in that contest.
LeBron played the last two outings versus the Houston Rockets and totaled 45 points, 18 assists and 11 rebounds for a 37 PRA average (44, 30 PRA).
NBC’s player prop model projects LeBron to record 22.0 points, 6.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds versus the Thunder for 34.1 PRA (Points, Rebounds + Assists) -- Showing value in the Under 38.5 PRA prop.
On the season, LeBron has gone Under 38.5 PRA in four out of six games (66.7%) and four of the last five (80%).
King James has four or fewer rebounds and six or less assists in 50% of his games this season. With the arrival of Russell Westbrook, James’ numbers have decreased from 40.5 PRA to 37.3 PRA on average.
James has also played 35 or more minutes in all six games played. I expect James to play fewer minutes tonight because L.A. should not need LeBron to drop back-to-back 30 point and 10-assist games.
At age 36, the King’s body will not take lightly too much usage. He ranks 31st in the NBA with a 28.8% usage rate. Anthony Davis has a 28% usage rate (36th), and Russell Westbrook is at 27.2% (45th).
All three Lakers are top 50 in the NBA in terms of usage rate -- that will lower, and that number will divvy up more as the season goes on. Westbrook was a former OKC Thunder star, so chances are tonight could be his night rather than LeBron’s.
James is listed as questionable for this matchup and there is a chance he does play.
If James does play, I love this prop and will throw 1.5 units on it as LeBron can kick back and relax with a 22-7-5 type of game and end up with the win over OKC.
Back James Under 38.5 PRA (-122) down to 36.5 PRA for 1 unit.
Pick: LeBron James Under 38.5 PRA (1.5u)
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