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The Milwaukee Bucks will attempt to tie the NBA Finals at two games apiece tonight on their home court against the Phoenix Suns. PointsBet has the Suns as -250 series favorites with the odds of the Bucks coming back set at +200.
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-5) Total: 221
In Game 3, the Bucks played their best game of the series led by a monster effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Some bettors believe the Bucks are back in this series after that impressive showing, and the current series price backs that notion up as well. Milwaukee won by 20 points in Game 3, but I think it was an outlier more than a sign that the Bucks have a chance to win the series. Remember, the Phoenix Suns have not lost back-to-back playoff games since losing Games 3 and 4 to the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.
PointsBet opened up Game 4 with the Bucks as a 3.5-point home favorite. That number has since moved past 4.5 and up to 5 at some shops. PointsBet is reporting that 54% of the tickets and 61% of the money are on the favorite Bucks, and the line is moving in that direction. This is a good sign for Bucks bettors.
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If you are backing an underdog this deep into the playoffs, you might as well bet them on the Money Line. PointsBet has the Suns’ Money Line sitting at +165. I think it’s telling that as the Point Spread moves up, the Money Line is still in the +160 to +165 range. Sportsbooks are not looking to give the Suns price much value in Game 4.
In their last five games, the Bucks are 4-0-1 to the Over. This game opened up at 220.5, and it has steamed up a half of a point since. On PointsBet, 81% of the tickets are on the Over while 73% of the handle is on the Over. I tend to side with the sharp money on the Under, and this is a game I think Phoenix will win, which makes me think the Under will cash. Phoenix should win a more defensive game.
EDGE: Suns +4.5
