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Giannis Antetokounmpo O/U 11.5 Rebounds vs. Suns
Giannis Antetokounmpo made a surprise appearance in Game 1 and crashed the boards hard, bringing down 17 rebounds in 35 minutes.
The Suns attacked Brook Lopez relentlessly on the pick and roll game for Chris Paul and Devin Booker to take advantage of. Game 2 will feature some changes, and rebounding-wise, they should favor Giannis.
Giannis had 22 rebound chances in Game 1, converting on 17 per NBA.com. Over the last three games, Giannis averages 19.0 rebound chances per game, converting 12.0.
In the last 10 games at 35-plus minutes, Giannis hit the Over 11.5 rebounds eight times (80%) and 28-of-40 (70%) on the season, per NBC’s new hit chart, which can found in the player prop projections model.
Giannis has recorded eight, 11 and 17 rebounds in three meetings with the Suns this season. Over 16 playoff games, Giannis averages 12.9 rebounds per game (1st) on 18.5 rebound chances per game (6th).
NBC’s model projects Giannis to record 12.0 rebounds in 38 minutes, hitting the Over. When he plays at least 38 minutes, Giannis has hit the Over 11.5 rebounds in 13-of-15 (87%) games and nine of the previous 10 (90%).
The Suns will need a game plan for stopping the Bucks trio in Game 2. Giannis looked healthy in Game 1 and used a lot of his upper body strength to create contact and finish around the rim.
As far as shooting, both teams shot 45% and 46% from the field and combined for 90 rebounds. There was some streaky shooting in Game 1, and that will be hard to replicate in Game 2 for a few players when game plans adjust game-by-game.
With a hypothetical 90 available rebounds, Giannis only needs 12 rebounds, which is 13.3%. Giannis has averaged 12.9 of the Bucks’ 49.7 rebounds in the playoffs, a whopping 25.9%.
Giannis also attempted 12 free throws and made seven (58.3%) in Game 1 -- a positive considering how this postseason has gone from the line.
He seemed confident, and in Game 2, Giannis’ 11.5 rebound prop seems like the best bet of his Overs, while I lean the Over on his 26.5 point prop.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds (1u)
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Deandre Ayton O/U 29.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Bucks
Deandre Ayton has continued to domiante. As stated previously, the pick and roll game of the Suns let CP3 and Booker eat, but Ayton often had a smaller defend and took advantage.
He scored 19 points and grabbed 22 rebounds in Game 1. Ayton averages 12.2 rebounds per game (3rd) on 19.9 rebound chances per game in the postseason (3rd). In Game 1, Ayton had 24 rebound chances and grabbed 22 -- insane.
Ayton dominated the paint, going 8-of-10 (80%) from the field and a perfect 6-of-6 from the free throw line. His combo number started around 22.5 in the playoffs and began at 26.5 in the Western Conference Finals.
Here we are at 28.5 and 29.5 for Game 2. Ayton has been underrated in this postseason game in and game out -- as he still sits at +1400 to win Finals MVP.
I know Paul had a huge Game 1, but Ayton was the fourth player to post 20-plus points, 15-plus rebounds and shoot 80% or better in a Finals game since 1955 per statmuse.
Players with 20+ PTS, 15+ REB, 80+ FG% in a Finals game in the shot clock era (since 1955):
— StatMuse (@statmuse) July 7, 2021
Bill Russell
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Wilt Chamberlain
Deandre Ayton pic.twitter.com/r6ARRXeanx
NBC’s model projects Ayton to record 17.3 points and 14.3 rebounds, hitting the Over in 38 minutes.
Ayton played 39 minutes of Game 1 and 37-plus in four straight. The minutes are there and should continue rolling in as he finally found a way to stay out of foul trouble.
When Ayton plays at least 37 minutes, he hit the Over 28.5 P+R in 12-of-15 games (80%) this season and 6-of-7 (85.7%) in the playoffs.
Ayton has been a double-double monster with four straight and six of the last eight with two games of nine rebounds.
The Suns’ big man has scored 16 or more points in six of the past seven games, and if he continues to get smaller defenders on him, that should continue.
Back Ayton to have another great game or back his rebound Over of 12.5 if you cannot get the 28.5 or 29.5 P+R prop as the former No. 1 overall pick continues to fly under the radar of importance alongside Paul and CP3.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 28.5 P+R (1u)
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