Top Game to Bet: Grizzlies at Lakers (-7.5)
Anthony Davis is questionable (Achilles) for this matchup after sitting out the last two games. Ja Morant and the Grizzlies travel to Los Angeles for the Lakers, a location they have struggled to find wins or cover. Memphis is 2-6 ATS in the previous eight trips to LA, and the Under has hit in 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two.
The Lakers have won two straight versus the Grizzlies and five of the last six meetings. I would lean Grizzlies and the Under based on where they are in the season. The Lakers have played three straight OT games and this is a real letdown spot for lack of scoring or outright loss. [[ad:athena]]
For +260 on the Moneyline, this could be one of the more profitable and favorable spots for the Grizzlies this season. If Anthony Davis and LeBron suit up, I will stay away from this game. If Davis is out for a third straight game or LeBron James is announced out but Davis is in, then scoop the Grizzlies +7.5 and a small bet on the Moneyline.
The Grizzlies won seven straight games before losing four consecutive leading up to the 130-114 win over the Hornets. Memphis allows 113.8 points per game in the last 10 outings (13th) and 121.8 over the previous five (28th). The defense has been a problem for Memphis. The Grizzlies have allowed 114 or more in three games with Jonas Valanciunas back in the lineup alongside Ja Morant. The Lakers’ fatigue could bail out the Grizzlies defense a few times tonight despite the lack of defensive efficiency.
The Lakers have won six straight games and nine out of the last 12. Over the previous five outings, the Lakers rank tied-seventh 109.2 points per game and 105.3 in the last 10 (2nd). LA has played four OT in three games and LeBron has played 41, 43 and 46 minutes during that span. There is no way he plays 40-plus minutes in a fourth straight game unless its another OT outing. If Memphis pushes the pace, I like the Grizzlies potential to cover against a fatigued Lakers squad.
I would not be shocked to see LeBron sit and Davis suit up tonight, but either way, the injury report is dependent on how to bet this game. Don’t be surprised if Memphis keeps this game competitive with one of them in as LA has escaped three straight OT games, one with both Davis and LeBron, and the other two with LeBron.
Bet Locked In: Wait for LeBron/Davis lineup news
Top Team to Fade: Charlotte Hornets
The Timberwolves and Hornets meet as both teams have been covering machines lately. The Timberwolves are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and the Hornets are 5-2-1 ATS in their previous eight games. While I lean Charlotte to get back on track in the winning column, I eye up a player prop on the Minnesota sideline.
Karl-Anthony Towns returned to action on Wednesday, recording a double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds versus the Clippers in 31 minutes of activity. Towns has double-doubled in all five games he has played in this season.
D’Angelo Russell will be out for this matchup, leaving Towns as the primary scorer alongside Malik Beasley. Towns has played 72 minutes and 73.8 possessions without Russell on the court, holding a 119.9 offensive rating, a 63.2% effective field goal percentage and 67.4% true shooting percentage. The previous performance against the Clippers was his first full game without Russell this season.
Towns has scored 22, 16, 25, 25 and 18 points, in that order, to average 21.2 points per game on the season. Towns has attempted at least 15 field goal attempts in his last four games and he has gone Over this total in the three games he recorded at least six free-throw attempts. When he attempted six or more free-throws, Towns scored 22, 25 and 25 points.
Charlotte has allowed 115.4 points per game over the last five (20th) and 115.0 in the previous 10 (23rd). The Hornets rank 17th in the previous five with a 47.0% field goal percentage to opponents and allowing 22.4 free-throw attempts per outing (22.4) in that span.
The Hornets rank 13th in points per game to centers (20.77), the second-most rebounds (17.43), and the most points per game to power forwards (24.86). Charlotte struggles against big men overall, allowing the sixth-most second-chance points (16.0). Towns is posting a 114.6 offensive rating, the second-highest of his career and recorded 10 or more rebounds in all five games.
Towns should be a problem down low versus the Hornets. Towns scored 18, 21 and 26 points in his last three career outings versus Charlotte. If Minnesota wants to win, Towns will need at least a 20-piece.
Bet Locked In: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points (1.5u)
Friday Betting Notes:
Cavaliers at Trail Blazers: Over/Under 222
In this matchup, there are two strong trends to note. The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings in Portland and the Under has gone 8-1 over the previous nine meetings in Portland. While this matchup is a toss-up with a -4.5 spread in favor of Portland, I like the Cavs leading scorer to have a bounceback game.
Collin Sexton scored four points in his last game, the lowest outing of the season. His previous low was 13 points against the Celtics in a blowout loss and he scored 17 in the follow-up versus the Lakers. Sexton went 1-of-9 from the field versus Denver in a blowout loss and played only 29 minutes. When he plays 30-39 minutes this season, Sexton averages 24.4 points per game. When Sexton plays over 40 minutes, that number is 26.0 per game.
Versus teams with losing records as of today, Sexton averages 23.9 points per game in 10 outings. Throwing in the .500 Pacers (13-13), that average increases to 24.2 points per contest. Sexton has surpassed 21 points in three of his last six games and four of the previous 10 games after scoring 20 or more in the first 10 games to open the season.
Portland allows the most points per game to point guards (28.28) and three-pointers made (3.54). Sexton scored 19 points in his only meeting with Portland last season. The Blazers are allowing 114.5 points per game in the previous 10 outings (21st) and Sexton has led the Cavs in scoring four of the last six games. Look for him to surpass the 20-point mark and surpass his season average of 22.7 versus Portland.
Bet Locked In: Collin Sexton Over 21.5 Points (1u)
Knicks (-3.5) at Wizards
If you have Julius Randle‘s prop line at 22.5 points, you are lucky and should immediately grab it. Washington allows the sixth-most points per game (22.36) and the fourth-most three-pointers made (2.72) to power forwards. Against centers, the Wizards allow the seventh-most points (23.51) and fourth-most assists per game (3.98).
The Wizards allow 115.8 points per game in the last five (22nd) and Randle had 22 or more points in five straight games before 12 points in his last outing versus the Heat. Randle has attempted at least 16 field goal attempts in his last six games and nine of the past 10 overall.
Randle scored 16, 21, 30 and 35 points versus the Wizards last season. He attempted 18 or more field goals in three-of-four games and attempted at least six free-throws in three. Over the previous five games, the Wizards rank 23rd with 23.6 free-throw attempts allowed, 27th in three-point percentage defense (42.0%) and 27th in opponent rebounding (49.4).
Randle posted 35 PRA or more in the first three meetings with Washington last season, including 42 and 52 PRA performances. Over the previous 10 games, the Wizards rank 27th in defensive efficiency (117.5) and tied-13th with 24.6 assists allowed per game. Randle could battle Washington’s Russell Westbrook for the game’s leader in points, rebounds and assists, so back an all-around effort from him.
The Over 37.5 PRA is on BetMGM (-120) and his point total is 22.5 (-110). FanDuel opened Randle’s point total at 23.5 (-104) and PRA at 38.5 (-118). I would play either the 37.5 PRA or 22.5 Point total for 1u or split them 0.5 each.
Bet Locked In: Julius Randle Over 37.5 PRA (0.5u), Over 22.5 points (0.5u)
Pistons at Celtics: Celtics -8.5
Both squads are playing a second of a back-to-back entering this matchup. Detroit lost by 16 to Indiana and Boston beat Toronto by 16. The spread opens at -8.5, a mediocre middle-ground for betting. The Celtics are 3-1 SU in the second of a back-to-back, losing their last outing in this situation to the Kings. The Pistons are 1-4 SU on the second of back-to-backs.
The Pistons have had success in Boston, going 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Over has also gone 6-1 in the previous seven trips to Boston. Detroit is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss, while Boston is 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games.
Boston also has their trio of Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum back. I’d rather get some live value might on Boston if Detroit hangs around in the first half. The -8.5 seems like a trap line with how Detroit has played.
Spurs at Hawks: Over/Under 228.5
The Spurs struggle in Atlanta, going 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Under is also 4-1 over the previous five games between the two teams when meeting in Atlanta. The Hawks are 1-4 SU in their last five games and 2-5 SU over the previous seven. Atlanta allows 116.0 points per game (23rd) in the last five games and scoring 111.0 (18th).
The Spurs are struggling to find the bottom of the net, averaging 104.0 points per game (26th). During that span, San Antonio is averaging 112.2 points per game (14th). The Under looks like a favorable spot for these two squads that rank outside the top 10 in pace factor and offensive efficiency.
If you are for a player prop, target the Hawks big men. The Spurs are bottom 12 in rebounds to power forwards (11.44) and centers (15.09) per game. Clint Capela has lit the boards up this season and he posted 13 or more rebounds in five games before seven versus Dallas.
