Top Game to Bet: Heat (+3.5) at Clippers
The Clippers are into their second game of a six-game homestand, after beating the Cavaliers 128-111. Kawhi Leonard is tagged as questionable entering this matchup and if he plays, this line changes.
The Clippers have won four straight games against the Heat and enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. The Heat won four straight before losing 112-94 to the red-hot Jazz. During that stretch, Miami beat Houston, New York (twice), and Washington. On the road, Miami is 4-6 over the last 10 games and 2-1 since Feb. 7. [[ad:athena]]
L.A. has averaged 119.4 points per game (T-5th), 49.5% (6th) and 46.4 rebounds (8th) over the last five games. Betting on them without either star is a difficult task but they handed the Cavaliers a 19-point loss on Sunday but will not be expected to beat the Heat in that fashion. The Clippers are 4-0 SU in the second night of a back-to-back, and if Leonard is out, I like that streak to be broken.
Miami has yet to play a game on the West coast as their Saturday loss at Utah is the farthest West they have gone. The rest of this six-game road trip goes across California before ending in Oklahoma City. The Heat lost to the Clippers 109-105 at home. Neither Leonard, Paul George or Jimmy Butler played in that meeting.
I like the prop totals for Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler entering this matchup. Both players have done it all for Miami to start the month of February. Adebayo averages 18.3 points, 9.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists in his last seven games. Butler averages 20.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.1 assists during that same span.
In both meetings with the Clippers last season, Adebayo went over his 31.5 PRA total both times and this season. Butler went over his 33.5 PRA total in one-of-two games versus the Clippers last season and five of the previous seven overall this season. For the Clippers, target Lou Williams’ prop total as he scored 17 points in the first meeting and 15 or more points in his last six games.
I will dabble on the Moneyline, too, as the Heat could win this outright, but only if George and Leonard are out. Jimmy Butler‘s prop total will skyrocket based on Leonard’s news, so try and fit that PRA prop in before the odds change.
Bet Locked In: Heat +4 (1u), Jimmy Butler Over 33.5 PRA - BOTH if Leonard is OUT
Top Team to Fade: New York Knicks
The Knicks have struggled after coming off a double-digit victory, going 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games. This season, the Knicks have had eight double-figure wins and are 3-4 SU the following game beating the Cavs, Magic and Rockets. The Knicks’ losses came to the Clippers, Heat, Kings and Thunder.
Knicks beat the Cavs 95-86 after a 130-110 win vs. Bucks.
Knicks lost to the Thunder 101-89 after a 112-100 win vs. Jazz.
Knicks beat the Magic 91-84 after a 105-75 win at Celtics.
Knicks lost to the Kings 103-94 after a 119-104 win at Warriors.
Knicks lost to the Clippers 129-115 after a 102-81 win vs. Cavs.
Knicks lost to the Heat 109-103 after a 110-99 win vs. Blazers.
Knicks beat the Rockets 121-99 after a 109-91 win at Wizards.
The Knicks are 4-2 SU in their last six games and winners of two straight. New York allows 99.8 points per game over the previous six games, the best in the league. However, the Knicks only average 107.7 points per game in that span with five games of at least 100 points but only two games of 110 or more.
Atlanta enters this matchup on a three-game losing streak and 1-6 SU in the last seven and 3-7 over the previous 10. The Hawks are surprisingly 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite and they get the slight nod as -1.5 point favorites here. This, to me, is a good spot for the Hawks to earn a win, especially on the road.
The Hawks lost to the Knicks in Madison Square Garden, 113-108, and Julius Randle (28) and RJ Barrett (26) combined for 54 of New York’s 113 points (47.7%). The Knicks are 6-6 SU in the 12 home games this season and 4-2 in the last six. New York has beaten Cleveland, Houston, Orlando and Portland in their previous four home wins - those teams are a combined 22-35 on the road.
Atlanta is 5-6 SU on the road this season, going 2-2 over the previous four games. The Hawks fell to Dallas 119-118 and Milwaukee 129-115 in those two road losses and beat Minnesota 108-97 and Washington 116-100. Since the Knicks Jan. 6 home win over the Jazz, they have beaten one team with a winning record at Maidson Square Garden (Blazers).
For the Hawks, Bogdan Bogdanovic (right knee), Kris Dunn (right ankle surgery), De’Andre Hunter (right knee surgery) and Rajon Rondo (lower back) are out. The Knicks will be without Mitchell Robinson (hand surgery) for the second straight game. New York started Nerlens Noel in Robinson’s place and played 32 minutes, recording 10 points and six boards.
The Knicks have had an advantage on the boards over the last 10 games but were outrebounded 46-44 versus the Rockets, the first game without Robinson. Now enter Clint Capela and John Collins and I like the chance the Hawks can contain either Randle or Barrett enough to earn a much-needed victory.
Trae Young failed to attempt a three-pointer in his previous game, the second time in his entire career. Look for him to be involved and be on double-double alert at MSG. He scored 42 or more in all three games versus the Knicks last season.
Bet Locked In: Hawks ML (1u)
Monday Betting Notes:
Bulls at Pacers: Pacers -5.5
The Bulls could welcome Wendell Carter Jr. back against Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, a tough test in Indiana. Chicago is still without Lauri Markkanen and the Bulls are 2-2 SU without him in the last four games. The Bulls are 0-6 ATS in the previous six meetings and 1-4 in the last five when visiting Indiana.
Over the last five games, Indiana is ranked 10th in defensive rating (110.9) and the third-fewest points allowed (105.8). Zach LaVine has scored 21 or more points in 12 straight games for the Bulls and Coby White has dropped 17 and 30 points in the last two. The Pacers have won two consecutive games after losing four straight and this could be a close contest, but Indiana should be too much for Chicago defensively.
Rockets at Wizards: Over/Under 228.5
Victor Oladipo is out and Russell Westbrook is now available after being questionable for this meeting. The Rockets are 1-6 SU in the last seven games and lost five straight. The defense has fallen apart in the previous five contests, allowing 116.4 points per game (22nd) and a 117.8 defensive rating (117.8). The Wizards beat the Celtics 104-91 for one of the best wins of the season, only the 7th win in 26 games.
Houston and Washington are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league right now. In the last five, the Rockets are last (98.8) and Wizards 28th (102.4). If you are looking for points, bet on John Wall versus Washington and Bradley Beal against Houston. Eric Gordon is another good option alongside Wall for a point prop.
76ers at Jazz: Jazz -7.5
Joel Embiid lands a questionable tag ahead of this matchup with the Jazz. Philly is 7-7 SU on the road this season, while Utah is on a seven-game winning streak and 18 of the last 19. They are playing the best ball of any team in the league and a road 76ers team that is 6-0 ATS in the previous six meetings with the Jazz.
Donovan Mitchell has scored 26 or more points in six of the last seven games and Rudy Gobert has double-doubled in six straight. Embiid has scored at least 25 points in 11 consecutive games and ranks third in the league with a career-high 29.6 points per game.
