Rudy Gobert Over 28.5 Pts + Reb vs. Warriors
The Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors meet tonight for a matchup of two potential darkhorse Western Conference playoff squads.
More than a few players are worth focusing on or betting on this matchup, but Rudy Gobert presents the best value of them all.
In two meetings with Golden State, Gobert recorded 24 points and 28 rebounds in the latest outing and 11 points and 14 rebounds in the first of the season (24 minutes in 19-point win).
In 2019-20, Gobert played Golden State three times and in the last two of the year, he posted 30 points and rebounds (P+A) and 37 P+A in those meetings. [[ad:athena]]
Gobert matched up with James Wiseman, Kevon Looney, Eric Paschall and Draymond Green in those two meetings. Only Looney and Green remain of those four and that is a significant advantage for Gobert.
NBC’s model projects Gobert to record 15.4 points and 13.7 rebounds for 29.1 P+R in 33 minutes. Gobert averages 15.3 points and 14.1 rebounds (29.4 P+R) when he plays 30 or more minutes this season.
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The Warriors allow the 10th-most points per game to centers (23.26) and the fifth-most rebounds per outing (15.99). Golden State ranks 20th (11th-worst) in the last five games with 46.6 opponent rebounds per game.
Golden State allows the league-low 99.4 points per game in the past five games, but 50.0 of those points come from inside the paint during that span (17th).
Gobert should have plenty of scoring opportunities and considering whom Golden State has played lately, and it is no wonder why the defense looks better than it is.
The Warriors played the Thunder (twice), the Pelicans (twice) and the Rockets over the previous five games. Utah is still without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, but the Jazz are a better team than those three hands-down.
Gobert has averaged 14.8 points and 12.4 rebounds in the past five games. One of those matchups was with San Antonio and he played 24 minutes in a blowout win. In the other four, Gobert has recorded 27, 23, 39 and 29 P+R.
Back Gobert to abuse Golden State down low and be the anchor to Utah’s success tonight with Looney and Green as the primary defenders.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 28.5 (1.5u)
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