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Clint Capela O/U 11.5 Rebounds vs. Wizards
Last season, Clint Capela played 12 back-to-backs and averaged 29.8 minutes per game. This will be his first B2B of the season and he averages 27.3 minutes per game over his last three games, so that is what we should expect from the Hawks center tonight.
In those 12 B2B’s last season, Capela had 10 games of 10 or more rebounds (83.3%) and six of 12 or more boards (50%). He double-doubled in nine of those 12 games (75%), per statmuse.
In his career versus the Wizards, Capela has seven-straight games of at least 10 rebounds, six consecutive with 11 or more and five of 12-plus, per statmuse. He has dominated Washington for 13.5 rebounds per game in that span.
In 2021-22, Capela has 12 or more rebounds in three of four games. He had 12 boards last night in a comeback win versus Jonas Valanciunas and the Pelicans -- this matchup will be a lot less stressful for rebounds.
The Wizards’ top rebounder is Kyle Kuzma with 11.8 per game. Montrezl Harrell and (8.5) and Bradley Beal (5.3) are next on that list.
Daniel Gafford is out for Washington and undergoing an MRI today, so that is another positive for Capela’s Over.
Harrell is more than likely starting off the bench since he did in the second-half versus Boston. Kuzma and Harrell will be Capela’s primary competitors on Washington’s side for rebounds.
Harrell, while being a great rebounder, only shoots close to the basket, so Capela will have plenty of rebound opportunities despite Harrell challenging him.
Capela should have no problem bullying Washington for rebounds without Russell Westbrook.
Capela had 11, 14 and 22 rebounds against Washington last year with Westbrook on the court.
Back him to go Over his rebound total here in what could be a messy game due to both teams playing second nights of a back-to-back this season.
NBC’s player prop model projects him at 13.4 rebounds tonight.
I played Over 11.5 rebounds for -110 and would play 12.5 for 0.5 units to 0.75 units.
Pick: Clint Capela Over 11.5 Rebounds (1u)
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Nikola Vucevic O/U 11.5 Rebounds vs. Knicks
In Nikola Vucevic‘s last four games versus the Knicks, he has posted 14 or more rebounds in all of them.
Stretching back the past 11 meetings with New York, he has recorded 10-plus rebounds in 10 games (90.9%) and 11 of 13 (84.6%), per statmuse. He averages 11.6 rebounds in 31 career games versus New York.
He played New York once as a member of the Chicago Bulls and posted 26 points and 18 rebounds.
NBC’s player prop model projects Vucevic to go Over his rebounding total with 12.5 boards, which is what some books have his line set at. With an 11.5, this becomes a one unit play.
He has hit the Over two out of four times this year. He could have last game versus Toronto, but he celebrated his birthday the night prior and was questionable entering the game with an “illness.”
I tried to call out sick after my last birthday too. The other Under was a matchup versus Jonas Valanciunas (understandable).
New York allows opponents to bring down 49.8 rebounds per game, which ranks as the sixth-most in the NBA.
In the Knicks’ four games (BOS, ORL, ORL, PHI), they allowed eight players (10 times, Bamba, WCJ 2x) to post nine or more rebounds. Five of the eight players had 11-plus boards.
Andre Drummond: 9 Rebounds
Tobias Harris: 9 Rebounds
Cole Anthony: 16 Rebounds
Mo Bamba: 13 Rebounds, 10 Rebounds
Wendell Carter Jr. 11 Rebounds, 9 Rebounds
Jayson Tatum: 11 Rebounds
Robert Williams: 10 Rebounds
Jaylen Brown: 9 Rebounds
Back Vucevic to continue his success against the Knicks, and with Zach LaVine questionable, Vuc’s role with this team grows. I played Over 11.5 rebounds for -110 odds -- I would play Over 12.5 rebounds for half-unit.
Pick: Nikola Vucevic Over 11.5 Rebounds (1u)
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