The 2021-22 NBA regular season is in full swing, and we already have several teams rising to the top of their conferences and proving profitable in the betting market. Two of these teams clash tonight as the Chicago Bulls (No. 1 in the East) take on the Golden State Warriors (No. 1 in the West) at the Chase Center. Considering how strong both Chicago and Golden State have played through the first 11 games, where can we find actionable betting value? If we look deeper at the Key Numbers, we can determine which wager is the sharpest play.
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Key numbers represent the most common score difference (Margin of Victory) or score total (Total Points Scored) between two teams at the end of a game. When considering the spread or Total, bettors should avoid key numbers because they provide no edge on either side. Instead, it is often beneficial to bet a value that is half-a-point above or below a key number. Then, in the likely event that the final margin or Total is a key number, there cannot be a push. The Key Numbers tool allows users to discover the most common margins and totals for a variety of tailored game scenarios by selecting the desired filters. In addition to identifying the key numbers, the tool demonstrates the edge provided by shopping and/or buying points to avoid the key numbers.
Today, we’re customizing the Key Numbers tool to synthesize whether the Bulls-Warriors margin of victory (spread) or combined game score (Total) is worth mining for betting value. The spread for tonight’s contest currently sits at Golden State -5.5, but as the Key Numbers tool reflects, the Total (222.5) could offer more optimal betting value. See how data from the past two seasons illustrates whether the Over or Under is a sharper bet:
NBA Key Numbers | Bulls vs. Warriors
When assessing the Key Numbers data for Chicago’s and Golden State’s respective combined game scores over the past two seasons, one can determine whether or not tonight’s Total (222.5) is worth a wager or not. The Warriors have returned most of their playmakers, yet, when evaluating the results from the past two seasons, it’s not hard to see that their games haven’t been flying past the Key Number combined score of 222 points. Similarly, even after the Bulls revamped their offense, most of their games last year and this year have ended below 222 total points. Therefore, if you’re aiming to extract actionable value using Key Numbers, you may want to bet the Under for tonight’s primetime clash.
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