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Game 1 of the NBA Finals was a classic case of the Joes vs. the Pros. The public heavily backed the Golden State Warriors, but the spread never moved which is a sign the Sharps were backing the Boston Celtics. It does not always work in favor of the Sharps, but it did in Game 1 as Al Horford and the Celtics overwhelmed Klay Thompson and the Warriors in the 4th quarter.
Not unexpectedly, the Warriors came out for Game 2 with a more determined effort. Their adjustments worked. Stephen Curry led the way for Golden State with 29 points and the series as a result was knotted at one game apiece.
Game 3 saw the series shift to Beantown and the Celtics held serve with a 116-100 win. Boston’s Big Three of Brown, Tatum, and Smart scored 27, 26, and 24 points respectively to lead the way.
Golden State faces an uphill battle if history is any indication. The last 39 times teams have split the first two games of the NBA Finals, the winner of Game 3 went on to win the series 82% of the time. They begin the climb with their leader at less than 100%. Stephen Curry tweaked his ankle in a collision with Al Horford in Game 3 and was limping throughout the rest of the game as a result. It is difficult to see a path to the title for the Warriors without Curry scoring at least as much as he has to this point in the series.
As they did for the first three games of the Finals, EDGE NBA Analysts Vaughn Dalzell and Corey Parson have taken a deep dive into the Finals market for tonight’s game. Each offers their top play. Through the first three games, Vaughn and Corey have cashed four of their six plays. Feel free to play each individually or if you choose to parlay them, get a boost courtesy of PointsBet.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Stephen Curry OVER 29.5 Points (+110)
Stephen Curry is fine and ready to go for Game 4. The Warriors super star is the engine and caboose behind this Golden State team as he scored 34, 29, and 31 points in this NBA Finals.
Following the Warriors five postseason losses they are 5-0 on the ML. Curry has scored 30, 30, 29, 15 and 29 points in those five games respectively. His points prop sitting at 28.5 is right on the money. Curry is 4-1 to the Over 28.5 points after a postseason loss and with an opportunity to tie the series up 2-2 going back to San Francisco, I expect Curry to drop another 30-point outing.
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Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec): Jordan Poole OVER 11.5 Points (-125)
The first three games of the NBA Finals have not been kind to Jordan Poole. Poole is shooting 40% from the field in the series. In the Western Conference Finals Poole shot over 60% from the field. It is well documented that in road games, role players tend not to show up. Tonight, in Boston the Warriors need a win or they will be facing elimination when they return home for Game 5.
I like the Warriors to win the game, but it will have to be more than just Steph Curry, who is playing but is playing hurt tonight having tweaked his ankle last game. Poole will have to get in on the offense. Poole’s point total on PointsBet is sitting at 11.5. I like him to clear the over in this critical spot. If he fails to hit the OVER, it severely limits Golden State’s chances of winning the game. Steve Kerr no doubt understands the situation and specifically the state of his roster and what he not just needs but also can expect from each of his players.
Summary:
Stephen Curry OVER 29.5 Points (+110)
and Jordan Poole OVER 11.5 Points (-125)
Play these individually or if you choose to parlay the two, know that PointsBet is offering a boost from +290 to +330.
Enjoy the Finals and Enjoy the Sweat.
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