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Tonight should be an interesting night of NBA betting. There are only seven games on the slate, but there has been drastic line movement in three of the games, including the matchup I’m looking at between the Grizzlies and Celtics. The Chicago Bulls went from a 4.5-point favorite to a 1-point Underdog in Atlanta. The status of Trae Young will determine where this game closes. The Golden State Warriors opened up as a -2.5 point favorite vs. the Dallas Mavericks and are now now a 1.5-point Underdog.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Boston Celtics (-3.5) Total: 224
The Memphis Grizzlies and Boston Celtics, two of the league’s hottest teams, meet for the first time this season tonight at TD Garden. Jaylen Brown is not expected to play for the Celtics, while the Grizzlies are expected to have all of their key pieces.
Before I looked at the point spread for this game, I thought the Grizzlies would be a 2-point road favorite. I am big on fading short road favorites, but Memphis is 7-3 ATS and on the Money this season as road favorites of four or less points. There are no absolutes in sports betting, so tonight my plan was to fade myself and back the Grizzlies as a short road favorite. After getting the day started when I checked the Live odds page, I noticed the Grizzlies were a 3.5-point Underdog. My initial thought was that Ja Morant must be out. That’s not the case. When I checked the betting splits for this game I noticed close to 70% of the tickets were on the Grizzlies, but Over 70% of the money was on the Celtics. So, a ton of respected money came in on the Celtics and flipped the line.
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There has been a lot of talk lately about the Celtics being a team that could compete for the Eastern Conference title. I think that’s ludicrous. Boston is currently the sixth seed in the East, sitting a game and a half ahead of the Raptors in the seventh spot. Boston could still finish this season outside of the playoffs and have to compete in the play-in tournament.
The Celtics have been streaking, but it’s not like they are beating the league’s top teams. Since the New Year began, Boston has won 20 games. Nine of those 20 wins have come against teams in the playoffs or play-in picture. That includes the two victories over the Nets J.V. squad. They also have recent losses to the Pistons and Pacers. I don’t care what the “respected” money says - Memphis is simply better than Boston, especially a Celtics’ squad team missing their second best player.
This season vs. teams in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Grizzlies are 9-6 on the Money Line and ATS. They are 8-2 vs. those teams since December.
Edge: Grizzlies +3.5
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