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Darius Bazley O/U 8.5 Points vs. Raptors
Listen, keep riding this train until the wheels fall off.
Darius Bazley has scored eight or fewer points in 12 straight games for the Thunder. Yes, 12. His points prop was 12.5 just two weeks ago.
Take a look below. He is 16-7 to the Under this season (70%), per NBC’s Player Prop model.
The Raptors are going to be a tough test for Bazley to get back on track. Toronto ranks sixth in the league with 19.44 points per game permitted to power forwards.
I like the chances Bazley does not sniff nine points again. Bazley was 34.4% from the field in November and attempted 14 shots through three games in December.
Continue fading him down to 7.5 for +100 or better.
Pick: Darius Bazley Under 8.5 Points (1u)
Kyle Kuzma O/U 12.5 Points vs. Pistons
Another player we continue to ride on. Kyle Kuzma has yet to figure it out with the Wizards when Spencer Dinwiddie and Bradley Beal are on the floor.
I have played Dinwiddie multiple times and enjoy riding his Unders as well. However, Kuzma is 13-7 to the Under this season (65%) when he plays fewer than 38 minutes.
He is 13-12 to the Under overall (52%) and 7-3 to the Under in his last 10 (70%) and 9-4 in the past 13 (69.2%), per NBC’s Player Prop model.
For the Pistons, they are ranked fourth overall against power forwards when it comes to made three-pointers per game (1.70) and look much better over the last five games.
On the season, Detroit ranks 29th, or second-to-last with a 38.1% three-point defensive percentage. Over the last five games, the Pistons’ opponents shoot 34.8% (11th), plus allow the 10th-fewest field goal attempts in that span (86.8).
Back Kuzma down to 11.5 points as he needs the trey-ball to hit his Over. Kuzma is hitting 33.3% from deep in his last five games and averages 10.6 points per game during that stretch.
Pick: Kyle Kuzma Under 12.5 Points (1u)
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Saddiq Bey O/U 13.5 Points vs. Wizards
I have not bet Saddiq Bey in awhile, but a Collab was in order with my friend @PipsNBA. We also collabed on Bazley, so follow us on Twitter.
We like Bey for a couple reasons. One, Cade Cunningham is playing like a Rookie of the Year contender and it appears he has finally figured out his shot. Bey, on the other hand, loses usage and attempts with Cunningham.
Bey averages a 19.4% usage rate on the season and that has dropped to 17.1% in the past five games and 16.9% in the previous three contests.
Outside of Bey’s 40-minute, 16 point and 16 shot attempt outing in his previous game versus Oklahoma City, Bey had nine field goal attempts in three straight games, hitting 22.2% or worse from the field.
Bey went 5-of-16 (31.3%) versus the Thunder. In Bey’s last 10 games, he made 40% or more of his shots from the field once. In that span, Bey went Under 13.5 points six times (60%), but five of the past six (83.3%).
Coming off a 40-minute game with another poor shooting performance on almost double the shots was not encouraging.
Continue fading Bey and add him to your watch list for Friday when the Pistons play the Pelicans for another Under on Bey.
Pick: Saddiq Bey Under 13.5 Points (1u)
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