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Jimmy Butler O/U 6.5 Assists vs. Wizards
Usually when I am betting on Jimmy Butler aka Jimmy Buckets, it’s his scoring prop.
However, the O/U 6.5 line has reappeared for Butler and has been very profitable to the Under.
Butler is 15-4 to the Under 6.5 assists this season, including seven straight hits, per NBC’s player prop model.
Against opposing small forwards, the Washington Wizards rank No. 1 with 2.8 allowed per game. Washington ranks third against power forwards (3.24) and 11th against shooting guards (4.14), so Butler should have his work cut out for him.
Miami is without Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker, Markieff Morris and Dewayne Dedmon due to COVID protocol. Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin will all suit up as available guards/forwards.
With Omer Yurtseven and KZ Okpala as the only bigs, chances are Butler will be more involved in rebounding and leading the charge in scoring versus the Wizards.
I would play Under 5.5 assists for a half-unit and +100 or better odds.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Under 6.5 assists (1u)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 6.5 Rebounds vs. Pelicans
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off NBA Western Conference Weekly honors after scoring 23, 27, 29 and 31 points in the past four games.
However, I believe his rebound prop is inflated because of his recent play. SGA rarely hits the Over 5.5 or 6.5 rebounds, but that is the prop the books gave us.
On the season, SGA is 22-7 to the Under 6.5 rebounds (76%) and 19-10 to the Under 5.5 rebounds (65.5%).
Over the past 10 games, SGA owns a 9-1 (90%) mark to the Under in the past 10 games, per NBC’s Edge Finder. His only Over was part of a triple-double versus Denver.
Sacramento is a bottom 10 to opposing guards when it comes to rebounding. However, Sacramento is one of the healthier teams in the NBA. The Kings are down Alex Len and Davion Mitchell due to COVID, but everyone is available.
The Kings should not have any problems with its rotation, while the Thunder are down Darius Bazley, Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl due to COVID.
Oklahoma City is playing a guard-heavy rotation with Josh Giddey, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort and SGA.
There will be plenty of rebounds to go around for all the young guards. I expect SGA to focus on scoring at a high level and continue to hit the Under on his rebound prop.
The Under 6.5 rebounds is juiced on PointsBet (-155), but the Under 5.5 rebounds are +110 to +120 odds. I would play both.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 Rebounds (1u)
Joel Embiid O/U 44.5 PRA vs. Raptors
Since November, Joel Embiid scored 28 or fewer points or recorded four or fewer assists in nine out of the last 16 games (see graph below).
Embiid has totaled 10 or fewer rebounds in eight out of those 16 contests. Overall, he is 7-4 to the Under 44.5 PRA in the previous 11 and 10-6 in those 16 games.
This 44.5 and 43.5 PRA prop is a little too high for someone who usually has his minutes monitored.
The Raptors rank fourth versus opposing centers in assists per game (2.65) and seventh in points per game (19.58). The Raptors permit the 10th-most rebounds per game to centers (16.07), so that will be the one red flag.
Toronto is going through its own COVID issues and missing a majority of its roster, including its entire starting five and a few bench players.
Philadelphia is far more healthy and has the available bodies to make this a three-quarter game. Embiid may not have to play heavy minutes in the fourth quarter, which bodes well for the Under.
The Raptors lost 144-99 to the Cavaliers in the previous outing. The 76ers have Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, Seth Curry and most of its bench outside of Andre Drummond and Shake Milton, whom they should not need for this matchup.
The 76ers have Harris and Matisse Thybulle playing forward minutes, while Georges Niang and a few others supplement Embiid’s minutes. This is not a game where Embiid needs to play 30-35-plus minutes.
Play Embiid’s Under 44.5 PRA (-120) down to 43.5 PRA. PointsBet already set this at 42.5 PRA.
Pick: Joel Embiid Under 44.5 PRA (1u)
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