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Ja Morant O/U 29.5 Points vs. Timberwolves
If you haven’t heard, Ja Morant posted a video clip of Michael Jordan from the 30 for 30 documentary to his Instagram to express himself following Game 1’s loss to Minnesota.
If you didn’t expect a big game yet, you can now. I already locked in Morant before watching the video, but felt some extra confidence watching that IG post. Morant made only his second start and first game playing more than 30 minutes in a month -- he dropped 32 points on Patrick Beverley and the Timberwolves.
Morant also tweeted about how teammate Desmond Bane should be on the NBA’s list for Most Improved Player and not Morant, that’s because Morant believes he should have been an MVP candidate alongside Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Morant has scored 30 points in 34 games this season and when he plays at least 35 minutes, Morant is 17-5 to the Over 29.5 points (77.2%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. He was 7-2 to the Over at home when he plays 35 or more minutes too (77.7%). Morant played 35 minutes in Game 1 and I expect more playing time in Game 2.
I think Morant plays like an MVP tonight. He had 32 points on 8-of-18 from the field (44.4%) and 16-of-20 from the free-throw line (80%). Minnesota could not slow him down and Morant was getting the rim every chance he could.
Morant’s 32 points was also the second-most of his career in the postseason and there was room for improvement.
Down 0-1 with a home game, I like Morant to score 30-plus points and honestly like him to top his 32 point performance from Game 1. Morant will not shoot 20 free-throws in Game 2, but he will go over 20 field goal attempts.
When Morant has shot 20-plus field goal attempts, he is 22-9 to the Over 29.5 points (70.9%) this season.
Let’s roll with Morant Over 29.5 points (-115). I would play the 30.5 for a unit as well.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 29.5 Points (1u)
Steven Adams O/U 20.5 PRA vs. Timberwolves
Run it back! Steven Adams’ Game 1 Under 19.5 Points + Rebounds was the easiest cash in a long time.
Adams seemed out of it in Game 1. The matchups and pace of the game did not meet Adams’ skill set and in return, he only played 24 minutes totaling 0 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists with 4 fouls.
Here is how Adams looked in the past four games versus Minnesota:
Game 1: 0 points - 3 rebounds - 3 assists = 6 PRA
2/4/22: 6 points - 12 rebonds - 5 assists = 23 PRA
11/20/21: 6 points - 2 rebounds - assist = 9 PRA
11/8/21: 3 points - 3 rebounds - 1 assist = 7 PRA
Adams scored six or fewer points in four straight meetings versus Minnesota, plus three or fewer rebounds and assists in three of four. Adams has hit nine PRA or less in three of those previous four meetings.
NBC’s model projects Adams to post 3.1 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists for 16.3 PRA, giving us another edge. If you like his 17.5 P+R prop again, there is value there as well.
Let’s not overthink Adams responsibility on defense against Karl-Anthony Towns, plus how effective Brandon Clarke was in 27 minutes. Even Zaire Williams and Kyle Anderson got some extended run at forward, while Clarke played center for Adams.
Adams has now played 27 or fewer minutes in four straight games against the Timberwolves. I expect that to continue as the pace of the series is not meant for Adams.
Aquaman Jr. only made 14 passes and received seven passes in Game 1, plus he recorded 8.0 rebound chances.
Let’s roll with the Under 20.5 PRA (-115) out to -140. I would play Under 19.5 for -110 or better.
I have the big man at 16 PRA tonight and I expect him to play 25 or fewer minutes with Clarke playing 25-plus.
Pick: Steven Adams Under 20.5 PRA (1u)
#NBA Collab @PropBomb 💣
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) April 19, 2022
1u
Brandon Clarke vs T’Wolves
Over 15.5 PTS + REB (-125) DK
Aligned with fading Steven Adams
Clarke will seen an uptick in minutes. Posted solid reb chances and paint touches. I have 18.7 P+R in 25 min#MemThis #RaisedByWolves #PlayerProps https://t.co/WrshcMUzHr
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