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STEPHEN CURRY 25+ POINTS AND WARRIORS ML VS. CELTICS
MVP! MVP! That’s what I was telling at my TV when we moved to 55-33 +16.15 units in the postseason.
Stephen Curry had arguably one of, if not, the best NBA Finals/postseason game of his career. The greatest shooter of all-time finished with 43 points, 10 rebounds and four assists on 53/50/88 percentage splits from the field, three and free-throw line in Game 4.
Let’s continue to ride the Curry MVP train. We’re rolling with a same game parlay of Curry 25+ points and Warriors ML for +100 odds.
Over his last 10 NBA Finals games at home, Curry scored 25-plus points nine times (90%) and is 12-5 overall (70.5%) in his career, so 25-plus is a safer bet.
Curry has scored at least 29-plus points in all four NBA Finals games, 25 or more points in nine out of the past 11 contests (81.8%) and 12 of the previous 15 (80%), per statmuse (shown below).
Celtics at Warriors (-3.5): O/U 212.0
For the game pick, there a couple of stats and trends worth noting.
The Boston Celtics are a perfect 7-0 ATS and on the ML during the postseason following a loss, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Boston is 8-3 on the ML (72.7%) and 9-2 ATS (81.8%) on the road this postseason, losing that Game 2 outing, breaking a four-game winning streak on the road.
The Celtics are +3.5 underdogs in Game 5 and will be a popular bet on the road due to that trend and the zig zag theory. The O/U of this series has also zig zagged without a back-to-back winner. The Over up for Game 5 (lean).
For the Warriors, Golden State is 10-1 on the ML at home (90.9%) and 8-3 ATS (72.7%) this postseason. The Celtics handed the Warriors their only loss at home in Game 1 of the Finals. The Warriors bounced back with a 107-88 win in Game 2 versus the Celtics at home following their only home loss of the playoffs.
The Warriors closed out Game 4 at home to the Nuggets (102-98), Game 4 and 6 at home vs the Grizzlies (101-98, 110-96) and Game 5 at home versus the Mavericks (120-110).
Golden State has won the big games at home all postseason but struggled to close out series on the road, which has been the main issue.
How I see this playing out is Warriors win Game 5 at home, Celtics take Game 6 at home, and we play the Under of Game 7 at Golden State and hope the Warriors cash for our 2 unit Curry MVP bet (+100).
I got this Curry 25-plus points and Warriors ML same game parlay -120 odds and would play out to -130.
Pick: Stephen Curry 25+ Points and Warriors ML (1u)
Leans: Over 212, Warriors -3.5
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