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Stephen Curry O/U 28.5 Points vs. Celtics
Game 4, down 2-1 in the series, it sounds like a setup for a Stephen Curry movie, especially off an injury that the media is blowing out of proportion.
Curry is fine and ready to go for Game 4. The Warriors super star is the engine and caboose behind this Golden State team as he scored 34, 29, and 31 points in this NBA Finals. Following the Warriors five postseason losses, Curry scored 30, 30, 29, 15 and 29 points, so this O/U of 28.5 is right on the money.
The Warriors star has attempted at least 21 field goals in the Finals and 11-plus three-pointers.
I expect him to get his normal shot usage off and 37-plus minutes. When Curry has played 37 minutes this season, he scored 30 or more points in 15 of 26 games (58%) and 29-plus points in 17-of-26 (65.3%), per NBC’s player prop model.
In the postseason, Curry scored 29-plus points in six straight at 37 or more minutes and seven out of nine overall (77.7%). He scored 30 or more points in six out of those nine games at 37-plus minutes (66.6%).
The model shows the 29.5, which PointsBet has for +110 odds, while most books have shifted to 28.5.
Curry is 12-7 to the Over 28.5 points in the postseason overall (63.1%). Against Boston, when Curry plays 35-plus minutes, he has scored at least 29 points in seven out of the last eight meetings, including this NBA Finals (87.5%).
I grabbed Curry Over 28.5 points at -110 odds and would play the Over 29.5 points or 30-plus alternative.
This could be a very memorable game for Curry’s NBA Finals legacy, one we all remember for good or bad.
If he goes off and the Warriors tie up the series 2-2 back to Golden State, Curry is back and the Finals MVP is his for the taking/losing -- or Curry isn’t himself and Game 4 goes to the Celtics, and Game 5 becomes a great spot to bet the Warriors or Curry at home down 3-1.
Pick: Stephen Curry Over 28.5 Points (1u)
WARRIORS AT CELTICS (-4): O/U 214.0
Well, the Boston Celtics continue their perfect reign coming off a loss and took Game 3 in TD Garden over the Warriors by a commanding fourth quarter.
Now, the Warriors attempt to return the favor. For Game 4, we see the exact same spread and location. This postseason, Golden State is 4-1 ATS and 5-0 on the ML following a loss, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
However, the Warriors were the home team in all those situations, so this will be slightly a different test despite beating the Celtics 107-88 in Game 2 following Boston’s Game 1 win.
The Celtics are 7-7 ATS and on the ML following a win (50%) this postseason and 3-5 ATS (37.5%) and 4-4 on the ML (50%) as a favorite in this position.
Below are the Warriors numbers off a loss in the postseason, as you can see, all home games.
The Warriors get off to a quick start following a loss, going 4-1 on the 1Q ML, losing by two points to the Grizzlies in the only 1Q loss and 4-0-1 in the 1H. I expect that to be a point of emphasis, especially with their three consecutive strong third quarters from Golden State.
The books opened the 1H at Boston -1.5 and it moved to -2 and even some -2.5’s shortly after opening at came back down to +1.5. While I lean the Warriors 1H +1.5, I think we can live bet the Warriors 1H for a better price because we have seen plenty of runs late in quarters over this series.
Boston is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite coming off a win this postseason (28.5%) and 3-4 on the ML (42.8%). Despite those non-profitable numbers, watching Boston go up by 17, then lose the lead in Game 3 at home, and end up winning by 16 points makes it hard not to back them here, especially when the public will be on the Warriors.
Despite myself betting on Curry MVP and saying I believe the Warriors will win the series, Game 3 showed the Celtics should be favored full-game at home again with the Warriors backs against the walls, it’s just a little weird it’s the same exact spread.
We should also wait to see who is reffing tonight’s Game 4 before placing bets, but I prefer to live bet whichever team holds the better value in the first-half or full-game. I lean the Warriors 1H +1.5 and Celtics full-game ML at a better number.
Pick: Live Bet
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