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Mavericks (-2.5) at Nets: O/U 225.0
The Nets were 3-11 on the ML and 5-8-1 ATS (38.4%) on the second night of a back-to-back last season. At one point, Brooklyn lost 10-straight and went 2-7-1 ATS (22.2%) during that streak on the second night of a back-to-back.
Last night, Brooklyn lost to Milwaukee 110-99, getting outscored 67-44 in the second-half. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 43 points and 14 rebounds on 16-of-25 shooting (64%) and 10-of-14 from the free-throw line (71.4%).
How will Brooklyn stop Luka Dončić after that? I am not sure and don’t think they can. With Doncic in the lineup, Dallas is 5-2 on the ML versus Brooklyn in his career and won four of the past five.
Doncic recored 37 points, 9 assists and 9 rebound in the previous meeting with the Nets. Doncic has totaled at least seven assists in five-straight meetings and six-plus rebounds in all seven matchups.
I wouldn’t talk anyone for Doncic props, specifically his Over 15.5 Rebounds and Assists prop or Over 47.5 PRA.
We bet the early value on Dallas at -120 odds and would play this out to -150.
Pick: Mavericks ML (1u)
Heat at Warriors (-6.5): O/U 227.0
Miami is playing the second leg of a back-to-back and they are on the road as well. While Golden State is enticing due to the rest advantage, there’s a better bet in this contest.
I bet the 1Q Over 58.5 (-110) as I expect both squads to get out to a quick start. The Miami Heat out-scored the Toronto Raptors 38-33 in their first back-to-back of the season, combining for 71 points.
Thus year, the Heat allow 29.8 points per game in the first quarter (23rd or 8th-worst) and the Warriors are second-to-last at 33.8 points per game in the first quarter.
Miami’s offense averages 28.8 points per game in the first quarter (14th) and Golden State totals 31.8 points per game in the first quarter (6th), so both offenses can put up points and both defenses are not equipped to stop each other.
Looking at last night’s game, Miami started off slow at Portland before crushing in the second-half. The Heat will want to come out quit in the second game of their road trip.
Let’s roll with the 1Q Over 58.5 at -110 odds, playable at 59.5.
Pick: 1Q Over 58.5 (1u)
Other Notes
Grizzlies (-3.5) at Kings: O/U 236.5
I am fading Ja Morant‘s rebounding prop versus the Kings here. At Under 5.5 Rebounds (-135), I like the chances Morant leads his team in points and assists tonight, but not rebounds.
The Sacramento Kings rank second versus shooting guards for rebounding (3.80) and ninth to point guards (5.50).
Morant is 3-1 to the Under 5.5 rebounds this season and 5-2 to the Under in seven career meetings versus Sacramento. A good pivot would be Morant Under 43.5 PRA -- a number he has never hit versus the Kings.
Pick: Ja Morant Under 5.5 Rebounds (1u)
Clippers (-6.5) at Thunder: 217.5
Oklahoma City beat Los Angeles 108-94 on Monday, so this is a revenge spot for the Clippers. The location stays the same for this game, but we can expect Paul George to miss (illness), Kawhi Leonard and Marcus Morris to miss this game.
I’m considering the Thunder +6.5, although they won the previous meeting, but you have to wait for the final injury report or play the guessing game with the Clippers.
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