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Knicks at Grizzlies (-6.5): O/U 226.0
The Grizzles were an NBA best 52-30 ATS last year (63.4%, +17.27 units) and 56-26 on the ML (68.2%, +18.93 units), so they could be slightly overvalued to start the season.
The Knicks have covered three-straight times in Memphis and won two outright as +145 and +300 underdogs, losing by four points as a +330 underdog.
The Knicks are 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in the past nine games as a road dog between +6 and +7 points, so there is value on the +6.5. Memphis was laying -9 at home in March to New York and won by four points, so I believe this line is telling us the Knicks are the play.
Memphis was 24th in the NBA with a 55.3 true shooting percentage, while the Knicks were 25th (55.0%). Both teams ranked top 11 in defensive net rating and the Knicks were one of the best points in the paint defenses (43.2 ppg, 3rd).
New York held opponents to 34% from three (6th), 44.7% from the field (5th) and 106.6 points per game (6th). By adding Jalen Brunson, the offense should be improved this season and the New York defense should be similar to last year.
Ja Morant will have a tougher challenge this time around versus the Knicks defense. Jaren Jackson is out for the Grizzlies, so Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks will need to step up.
Bane shot a combined 8-of-33 (24.2%) from the field in his past two meetings versus the Knicks, Dillon Brooks scored at least 23 points in the past three meetings and Morant dropped 23 and 37 in the previous two against New York, so those are the main scoring weapons -- no one else should scare the Knicks.
Outside of Morant, Bane and Brooks, Memphis will lean on Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, Tyus Jones, Xavier Tillman, Santi Aldama and Ziaire Williams. The Grizzlies lost De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson off their bench, two guys that combined for 44.2 minutes per game.
Offensively, I cannot trust the Grizzlies role players versus the Knicks defense in the season-opener. Jackson’s all-around presence will be missed in this matchup.
I’ve enjoyed watching and believe in the growth of Mitchell Robinson, Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley for the Knicks, plus Julius Randle went for 36 points and RJ Barrett scored 23 points on the Grizzlies in the last meeting.
Add in Brunson and the Knicks can win this game outright. Let’s roll with New York +6.5 at -110 odds before it goes below +6. I sprinkled the Knicks ML at +225 on BetMGM for a 0.25 unit. This is +200 or lower elsewhere.
Pick: Knicks +6.5 (1u), Knicks ML (0.25u)
Bam Adebayo O/U 16.5 Points vs. Bulls
Last season, Bam Adebayo went Under 16.5 points with 15 and 16 points versus the Bulls but only played 26 and 29 minutes as a courtesy of two blowout wins by Miami Heat.
The Heat won both those games 127-109 and 112-99 and eventually won and covered all four games versus the Bulls in 2021-22.
Entering this year, Udonis Haslem is quoted as giving the leadership role to Adebayo this season and Pat Riley has said he and head coach Erik Spoelstra want Adeabyo taking 15-plus shots per game.
Adebayo only shot the ball 15-plus times in 17 games last year. However, he went Over 16.5 points all 17 games when attempting at least 15 field goal attempts!
Bam already stated he wants to be more aggressive and vocal for the team, so we should expect Adebayo to be heavily involved versus Chicago.
The Bulls allowed 49.6 points in the paint per game last season (22nd) and while they ranked second-best in offensive rebounding allowed per game (8.7), it’s because opponents shot 47.4% from the field (26th), so there weren’t many rebounds to go after.
How did Chicago fix the defensive issues? Andre Drummond was brought in to help Chicago’s lack of depth behind Nikola Vučević, but defensively, Drummond’s presence is not a positive whatsoever.
Vucevic and Drummond will be the primary defenders on Adebayo with Patrick Williams and Javonte Green as the forwards. I love all those matchups for Adebayo and this game to be tighter than previous two blowouts.
Sharp bettors are already moving the Bulls +6 down to +5.5 at some markets.
I am a Bulls fan and I expect this contest to be closer than years past, but Bam Adebayo‘s points prop is my favorite bet in this matchup.
I circled this spot and expected a 17.5. or 18.5. FanDuel opened at 17.5 and -128 to the Over.
I played Adebayo Over 16.5 Points at -120 odds on DraftKings. I would play this to 17.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 Points (1.5u)
Random NBA Notes
Miami Heat (-6) vs Chicago Bulls: O/U 216.5
Chicago was 0-4 ATS and on the ML versus the Heat last season and has struggled since 2019, going 2-7 ATS (22.2%) and 1-8 on the ML (11.1%) versus Miami. In Miami, Chicago has gone 1-4 on the ML (20%) over the past five trips and 3-7 on the ML in the past 10 as a road underdog (30%).
Wizards (-2) at Pacers: O/U 227.0
The Wizards are 5-1 on the ML (83.3%), winning four-straight at Indiana when they are pegged as the road favorite in this series. When Washington is a road underdog at Indiana, the Wizards are on a six-game losing streak and 1-9 in the past 10 trips (10%).
Hornets (-2) at Spurs: O/U 229.5
The Hornets have not been favorites in San Antonio since 1997 and will be without LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges and James Bouknight to start the season. The Spurs are one of the worst projected teams this season but went 10-7 on the ML (58.8%) as a home team versus a squad with a losing record last year.
Cavaliers at Raptors (-3): O/U 214.5
Donovan Mitchell was acquired by the Cleveland Cavaliers and now expectations are sky-high for the Cavs. Last year’s Win Total was set at 26.5 for the season compared to 48.5 this year.
Historically, five teams since 2004 have had win totals raise 20-plus wins the following season and all five teams Under their win total. Cleveland should be a good fade this season after an incredible 25-4 ATS start to last year.
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