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Stephen Curry O/U 28.5 Points vs. Cavaliers
Let’s run it back on Stephen Curry.
The Warriors guard is doing everything he can to get Golden State a win. Curry dropped 47 points versus the Kings after 39 points versus the Magic over 38 minutes each.
Curry hit 15-of-27 three-pointers (55.5%) and went 30-of-56 from the field (53.5%) in that two-game span. Chef Curry is on fire.
Historically, Curry has balled against Cleveland, scoring 28, 40, 33, 36, 40 and 42 points in the past six meetings. Curry hit the Over five out of the last six times and made at least four three-pointers in all six games. Curry scored 28, 36 and 40 points in the past three home games against Cleveland.
Cleveland has a top-10 defense overall and against guards, but Curry is built different and on a mission. Golden State is 2-4 in the last six games that Curry has played and he scored 47, 39, 23, 32, 31 and 33 points in that span, hitting the Over five times.
Jayson Tatum scored 26 and 32 points on Cleveland, Jaylen Brown posted 30 and 32 points and Paul George totaled 26, while LeBron James recorded 27 points on the Cavs this year. I like the chance Curry goes for 30-plus points.
I played Curry Over 28.5 Points at -115 odds on FanDuel.
Pick: Stephen Curry Over 28.5 Points (Risk 1.5u)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 28.5 Points vs. Raptors
In five career meetings versus Toronto, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 26 or fewer points in four games with a high of 32 points.
In the 32-point effort, SGA was playing alongside Chris Paul in OKC, so that was a very long time ago (2019).
This season, Toronto ranks fifth-best in points per game to point guards and ninth-best in three-point defense. The Raptors are top 12 in three-point defense overall (35%), free-throw attempts permitted (22.2) and points in the paint allowed (45.0).
SGA is getting to the free-throw line 7.7 times for a 94.8% made rate and 2.8 three-point attempts for a 32.1% from deep. I expect Toronto to limit SGA’s three-point success and if he is held to five or fewer free-throw attempts, we are in good shape.
SGA is 3-0 to the Under 28.5 points this season when he attempts five or fewer free-throws versus the Nuggets, Clippers and Bucks. The Raptors rank seventh in defensive net rating, while the Bucks and Clippers are ranked first and fourth.
Fade SGA against one of the better defenses in the NBA. I played SGA Under 28.5 Points at -120 odds on DraftKings. I would play this at 27.5 for 1 unit on FanDuel.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 Points (1u)
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