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C.J. McCollum O/U 18.5 Points vs. Jazz
These two teams met on Tuesday and C.J. McCollum went for 14 points on 6-of-17 from the field (35.3%) and 1-of-3 from the free-throw line (33.3%) in a 121-100 blowout loss.
McCollum is 4-2 to the Under 18.5 points on the road this season, but I like the value here. This is a bounce back spot for C.J., revenge game for the Pelicans and ideal pace game to back an Over.
Both teams rank 11th and 12th in pace this season and Utah ranks 4th in December, while New Orleans is 13th. We saw 121-100 and we could see a higher-scoring game and a much closer contest this time around.
McCollum started the month 8-of-33 from the field in three games (24.2%) and eight three-point attempts but has gone 26-of-57 over the last three games (45.6%) with 18 three-point attempts, so a much higher volume. His points per game went from 6.6 ppg in the first three games to 20.3 ppg in the past three during that six-game span.
The Jazz are a bottom-five team in points per game to point guards and McCollum scored 19 or more points in seven-straight versus Utah until Tuesday’s game, so back McCollum Over 18.5 Points (-120) this time around.
This is -120 on PointsBet, while FanDuel has -122 and DraftKings at -135. I would play this to 19.5 or the 20-plus point alternative at +100 odds.
Pick: C.J. McCollum Over 18.5 Points (1.5u)
Alperen Şengün O/U 8.5 Rebounds vs. Heat
The Miami Heat have 12 players on the injury report tonight, so only god knows who is actually playing in this game.
However, there are rumors Bam Adebayo is expected to sit and there is a good chance Tyler Herro does as well, but either way, the Rockets are live to win this game outright, depending who’s in the lineup.
However, Miami has struggled all season with injuries and with that, their big men depth has been depleted at times.
Dewayne Dedmon is out and Adebayo is questionable, behind them are Orlando Robinson and Nikola Jovic as forwards when Jimmy Butler or a role player aren’t stepping as the power point forward.
All of that goes into saying I like Alperen Şengün to have an effective night on the boards.
Sengun averages 16.5 rebound chances per game this season (13th) and 16.8 in December, so he has been constituent. Sengun ranks 20th in the league with 9.0 rebounds per game and hit eight or more rebounds in four-straight games.
At home, Sengun averages 10.4 rebounds per game (9 games) compared to 7.9 on the road (15 games). The Rockets center is 6-2 to the Over 7.5 rebounds at home this season and 4-4 to the Over 8.5 rebounds.
NBC’s player prop model projects Sengun at 8.8 rebounds. If Bam is out, the Over 8.5 rebounds won’t be +100 much longer and this prop started at 7.5 rebounds and -140 odds to the Over today.
I played Over 7.5 rebounds (-140) and Over 8.5 (+100) as I anticipated this move.
Pick: Alperen Şengün Over 8.5 Rebounds (1u)
Bucks at Grizzlies (-2): O/U 227.0
We have what should be the best game of the night in the NBA taking place in Memphis, Tennessee.
The Bucks have won eight of the last 10 games, while the Grizzlies have won six-straight games, including the last four at home, which is crucial in this game.
Since the start of December, the Bucks hosted the Lakers, then went Charlotte overnight for the second night of a back-to-back before going down to Orlando to face the Magic two days later.
After that, two days later the Bucks hosted a home game versus the Kings before making a two-game road trip to Dallas and Houston before coming home to face Golden State and now going back on the road to Memphis -- that’s a ton of travel over two weeks.
Jrue Holiday is out for this game and the Bucks are working Khris Middleton back into the mix. Take the Grizzlies to win this game outright (-130). Memphis will have enough firepower and defense to get this win.
Additionally, the Grizzlies have won six-straight versus the Bucks when they are home favorites, which they are here.
Pick: Grizzlies ML (1u)
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