NASCAR is set to crown a Cup Series champion at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday with coverage beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Forty drivers will compete in this weekend’s race, but it’s Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and William Byron who will be battling for the 2024 title. Points are thrown out the window, and the highest finisher of those four will hoist the Bill France Cup at the end of 312 laps.
I want to focus solely on the Championship 4 drivers entering this weekend and look at how their championship odds have shifted from the start of the 2024 season to now, so let’s dive into some of the numbers.
Ryan Blaney (+175)
The latest odds on BetMGM have Ryan Blaney as the favorite to not only win the championship but also to win the race (+310). The defending series champion has yet to find victory lane at Phoenix but has six-straight top five finishes, including a runner-up in last year’s finale to secure the championship.
Blaney entered 2024 with the fifth-best odds (+1000) to become the first back-to-back champion since Jimmie Johnson won five in a row from 2006-2010. He spent the first half of the season winless before catching a bit of summer heat with two victories at Iowa Speedway and Pocono Raceway. He entered the playoffs as the five seed.
Catching fire is what Blaney has become known for, especially in the playoffs. He has built his reputation on back-against-the-wall victories late in the season, and 2024 has been no different. He drove his way into the championship race in a must-win situation at Martinsville and is the betting favorite for the title for a reason.
In his 17 starts at Phoenix, Blaney has eight top fives and an average finish of 10.6. He also leads all drivers in average finish, total speed and driver rating at this track since 2022.
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William Byron (+275)
Byron entered the season as the second favorite (+600) to win his first title behind teammate Kyle Larson. He built an early case for those who bet on him, ripping off three victories in the first eight races, but eventually found himself in a midseason slump. That lingered into the first round of the playoffs despite being the four seed, but the No. 24 has found consistency as of late with six straight top five finishes.
He is the only Championship 4 driver to not have won his way into the title race, but he’s a former winner at Phoenix and started on pole in this race a year ago. Byron will need to find some of that early-season magic in the desert, but there’s no denying that he has the talent and team to get it done.
Joey Logano (+325)
After a disappointing title defense in 2023, Logano entered this season with the longest odds (+1800) of those who made the Championship 4. His lone win in the regular season came at Nashville Superspeedway, and he entered the playoffs as the nine seed.
Despite having one of his worst statistical seasons in Cup, Logano has come through when it mattered most. He opened the playoffs with a win at Atlanta and followed that up by winning the opening race of the Round of 8 to punch his championship ticket.
Logano has the chance to become the 10th three-time Cup Series champion, and he’s proven dangerous in crunch time. His lone win at Phoenix came in 2022 when he won his second championship. There is an added incentive here because Logano was the first to lock himself into the title race, so having two weeks to prepare for Phoenix is vital. I see the most value in betting Logano for the title this weekend.
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Tyler Reddick (+325)
Reddick is the only driver who is making his first Championship 4 appearance of the group. He was one of four drivers who opened at +1400 to win the title and the only one to make the playoffs.
Reddick cemented himself as a title favorite after winning the regular season championship and setting career highs in top fives, top 10s, laps led, and average finish. While the results in the playoffs have been off from his regular-season form, a buzzer-beater win at Homestead sent him through to the finale.
Could the lack of championship experience be affecting Reddick’s line? Personally, I give more weight to the inconsistencies of the No. 45 team, considering Reddick does have two Xfinity Series titles to his name in this exact playoff format. We also can’t forget that he led 68 laps at Phoenix in the spring and was top two in both stages, so we know the No. 45 can run up front.
There is a case to be made for all of these drivers, but I give the edge to Ryan Blaney. Despite William Byron’s recent run of top fives, he hasn’t been in Victory Lane since April. Tyler Reddick has six finishes of 20th or worse in the playoffs, and Joey Logano has not had the speed in comparison to his competitors all season. An entire season comes down to one race, winner take all.
Enjoy the racing in Phoenix and good luck with your bets.
