Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
After the second week of racing, there are more questions than answers surrounding the Next Gen car. On the face of things, Kyle Larson‘s win seems to be an example of him picking up where he left off at the end of 2021. He was our pick to win last week and even after it was announced he would drop to the rear of the field for changing an electrical system that caught fire, we said on Sirius/XM that he would still do so.
However, more than half of the top 10 on the 2-mile track last week were fresh faces and as Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones battled for the win in the closing laps, they did so after running with the leaders for sizeable portions of the race. Auto Club Speedway is supposed to be one of the most predictable races on the schedule.
There were some extenuating circumstances. Larson blocked his teammate Chase Elliott into the wall, William Byron was collected in an incident with a driver limping around the track with a blown tire, and Brad Keselowski was caught up in an accident. But the same thing happened to some dark horses who were near the front of the pack. This could be a season of surprises. Fantasy players and bettors need to be resilient.
Top 10
1. Austin Cindric (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Daytona 500)
Power Average: 5.00
Cindric proved his Daytona 500 victory was not a fluke by winning the pole for the Wise Power 400 and earning top-10 standings in both Average Running Position and Driver Rating. His raw number slipped a little from 3.0 to 5.0 and the pack is catching up, but there is no reason to believe he will fall dramatically at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this week because Team Penske is strong on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks.
2. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 4) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 6.08
The Wise Power 400 was a chaotic affair, but that is part of the reason we track strength-based stats. With a Diver Rating of 97.6 and Average Running Position of 6.93, Blaney was ranked among the top five in both categories and that means just as much, or more, than his 18th-place finishing position. Blaney has top-fives in his last two Las Vegas races and top-10s in 73 percent of his starts there.
3. Erik Jones (Last week: 13) +10
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 6.71
As last week progressed, we became increasingly aware that dark horses would be interesting, but Jones contending for the victory in the closing laps caught most of us by surprise. His third-place finish was the first time he has been among the top five since leaving Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of 2022 and this new alliance with GMS Racing is making a ripple.
4. Joey Logano (Last week: 8) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 7.20
The Wise Power 400 was a cat-and-mouse affair. As drivers moved up and down the order, the important thing was to have track position and the right setup at the end of the race. Logano is one of the better drivers at doing that, so it was not much of a surprise to see him finish in the top five. A four-lap shootout at the end of the race put him in some aggressive company and forced him to race with drivers doesn’t usually battle.
5. Kyle Larson (Last week: 9) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 7.60
With his 17th career win, Larson tied Curtis Turner and Marvin Panch for 52nd on the all-time wins list. He showed aggression in the closing laps and blocked his teammate into the wall. To a man, drivers will tell you that the only way to succeed in this sport is to be selfish and after a disappointing Daytona 500, Larson made a statement last week that he is going to defend his championship with everything he has.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Last week: 12) +6
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 8.93
Stenhouse finished in the top 10 at Auto Club and backed that up with equally strong showing in strength-based categories. One of the open questions at the start of this season was whether the reduction by JTG-Daugherty Racing to one car would pay dividends, and while that is not answered yet, it is also not a ‘no’.
7. Brad Keselowski (Last week: 2) -5
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 9.08
We ranked Keselowski high last week in the belief that he would carry his Daytona 500 momentum into California, which he did. A strong run came to an end as he was collected in a multi-car accident, however. Without a new car to level the playing field, we would be tempted to say that RFK Racing would struggle to overcome their modest performances in the past couple of years. But as with many teams this year, we are forced to wait and see what is going to happen.
8. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 7) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 9.54
We expected more from Truex on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways last week, but also understood that his performance on 2-milers has not been quite as strong as 1.5-milers. If he had not clipped the wall early in the Wise Power 400, he might have contended for a top 10. Back-to-back 13th-place finishes shows consistency, but not a ton of strength.
9. Aric Almirola (Last week: 14) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 11.83
In his last full-time season, it is nice to see Almirola get off to a strong start. Almirola also finished 2021 on a high note, and with his sixth-place result, he now has four consecutive top-10s for the first time since the summer of 2020.
10. Chris Buescher (Last week: 15) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 11.92
Briscoe’s third-place finish in the Daytona 500 was not supported by low numbers in the strength-based stats. The opposite was true at Auto Club. He finished 16th and outperformed that mark in both the Average Running Position and Driver Rating. The biggest reason for his rise, however, were early problems for several drivers who were drug down by accidents and mishaps.
Dropped from the Top 10
11. Kyle Busch (Last week: 3) -8
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 12.09
Drivers want a car that is hard to control, but they may not have anticipated what they got at Auto Club. Busch showed promise in prelims, but he struggled to find the handle early and was the first to spin. He lost a couple of laps and made them back up, but his time in the back of the pack killed his Power Ranking.
12. Bubba Wallace (Last week: 5) -7
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 12.23
Drivers, especially Young Guns, must find that delicate balance of aggression and endurance. Had Wallace been a little more patient on Lap 159 last week, he would not have triggered a crash that enveloped him and three others. Owners will tell you they prefer to have to pull a driver back than push him forward, however.
13. Chris Buescher (Last week: 6) -7
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 12.67
Buescher’s Lap 112 accident happened early enough in the race to hurt his Power Ranking. It remains to be seen if that incident, as well as one for Keselowski. will rob this organization of their momentum.
17. Chase Elliott (Last week: 10) -7
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 14.00
Elliott can blame his poor finish on a block by Larson that put him in the wall, but his precipitous drop in the Power Rankings is due to a mistake he made early in the race when he slapped the wall and spent most of the afternoon trying to work his way to the front. He wasn’t the only driver to make a mistake in the event, but it could take a while for him to work his way back into the top 10.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Wise Power 400, Auto Club: Kyle Larson (+360)
Daytona 500, Daytona: Austin Cindric (+2800)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 5.00 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 6.08 | 4 | 2 | |
3. | 6.71 | 13 | 10 | |
4. | 7.20 | 8 | 4 | |
5. | 7.60 | 9 | 4 | |
6. | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 8.93 | 12 | 6 |
7. | 9.08 | 2 | -5 | |
8. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 9.54 | 7 | -1 |
9. | 11.83 | 14 | 5 | |
10. | 11.92 | 15 | 5 | |
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 12.09 | 3 | -8 | |
12. | 12.23 | 5 | -7 | |
13. | 12.67 | 6 | -7 | |
14. | 13.69 | 17 | 3 | |
15. | 13.73 | 11 | -4 | |
16. | 13.85 | 29 | 13 | |
17. | 14.00 | 10 | -7 | |
18. | 14.08 | 22 | 4 | |
19. | 14.27 | 21 | 2 | |
20. | 14.42 | 18 | -2 | |
21. | 15.58 | 24 | 3 | |
22. | 16.00 | 25 | 3 | |
23. | 16.31 | 27 | 4 | |
24. | 16.45 | 16 | -8 | |
25. | 17.31 | 31 | 6 | |
26. | 18.15 | 19 | -7 | |
27. | 19.57 | 28 | 1 | |
28. | 20.60 | 30 | 2 | |
29. | 20.89 | 33 | 4 | |
30. | 21.45 | 20 | -10 | |
31. | 21.82 | 23 | -8 | |
32. | 23.25 | 26 | -6 | |
33. | 23.45 | 34 | 1 | |
34. | 23.64 | 35 | 1 | |
35. | 24.20 | 36 | 1 | |
36. | 25.91 | 32 | -4 | |
37. | 26.82 | 37 | 0 | |
38. | 28.50 |
| NA | |
39. | 29.20 | 38 | -1 | |
40. | 32.20 | 39 | -1 | |
41. | 33.80 | 40 | -1 | |
42. | 34.00 |
| NA |
PointsBet Sportsbook is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
After 2022 Daytona 500 [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/power-rankings/2022-power-rankings-after-week-1]
After 2021 Daytona Road, Week 2 [https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/power-rankings/power-ranking-after-daytona-road-course-0]
