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William Byron came within a lap and half of winning his third race of the 2022 season and extend his top-ranking should the playoffs begin tomorrow. Winless through 11 races, Joey Logano wanted the victory more and didn’t much care how he got it – so with time running off the clock, he didn’t even try to pass the leader. Logano simply ran into the back of his car and sent the No. 24 into the wall.
What makes this win so interesting is that the next three drivers lined up behind Logano were – and still are – winless. Two of them, second-place Tyler Reddick and third-place Justin Haley, are currently below the bubble. If they had won, the playoff picture would be markedly different. Two of the 10 winners are currently outside the top 16, which is why Reddick finds himself currently looking through the window, hoping for a win.
More than ever, the playoff bubble is a moving target in 2022. We are not done with unique winners. Granted, high attrition that took out 13 cars, (more than a third of the field), and altered the dynamic of the finish, but nine of the top 10 entered the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway without a win and there is nothing to say that this same amount of carnage won’t happen several more times in the next 14 races.
After all, eight full-time winners from 2021, (Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, and Bubba Wallace), are still seeking a 2022 win.
Only six slots remain before the playoff grid is overfilled with winners and we still have the wild card races at Sonoma Raceway, Road America, Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, and Watkins Glen International ahead of us – not to mention the pack racing lotteries at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Daytona International Speedway.
The period under consideration this week runs from Atlanta Motor Speedway through Darlington.
Top 10
1. Chase Elliott (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Weeks as #1: 5
Wins: 1 (Dover)
Power Average: 5.87
Elliott methodically worked his way through the field after having to start in the back of the Goodyear 400 in a backup car. While that negatively impacted his Average Running Position and his Laps in the Top 15, he benefited from the fact that Blaney and Byron had poor finishes and dropped down the order. Elliott is the points’ leader for a good reason, and his consistent runs give him a distinct advantage.
2. Christopher Bell (Last week: 5) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 8.00
Bell benefits from the QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta aging out of this week’s formula. With five results of seventh or better in the mix, he’s consistently working his way up the grid as others falter. His two poor results in this span came in the Talladega Superspeedway lottery and after a penalty at Martinsville Speedway. In the past two weeks, at Darlington and Dover Motor Speedway, he’s had cars capable of winning if his strategy had played out a little differently.
3. Kyle Busch (Last week: 7) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 8.16
Busch had every right to be frustrated last week. He had one of the fastest cars in the early stage of the Goodyear 400 and was an innocent bystander when a blown tire sent Keselowski into the wall and then into his path. That snapped a five-race streak of top-10s and could potentially stall his momentum. The good news is that he and wife Samantha will probably be blessed with another child this week as their surrogate is ready to give birth, and that positive energy will come in time to head to a track on which he excels: Kansas Speedway.
4. William Byron (Last week: 3) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 2 (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1)
Power Average: 8.40
Byron also has every right to be frustrated over last week’s finish. It’s one thing to lose a race to a faster car, but to simply be wrecked out of contention takes a toll mentally and physically. Byron went from having a certain top-two finish to blowing a tire after wall contact and finishing 22nd. This was his third consecutive result of 15th or worse, but at least he knows he will race with Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) through the 2025 season.
5. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 2) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Weeks as #1: 1
Power Average: 8.45
Not much was expected from Blaney last week and that is precisely what he delivered. If ever he was going to get a second career Darlington top-10, one would have thought it would come in a race that had more than a third of the field in the garage when the checkers waved. Instead, he was 17th. The future does not look particularly bright because he has been 20th or worse in five of his last six Kansas races.
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6. Ross Chastain (Last week: 6)
Weeks in the top 10: 7
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 9.44
Chastain had one of the fastest cars in the Goodyear 400 and was well on his way to making our third-place ranking on the Cheat Sheet look like a great call. Darlington is tricky, and with the air off his spoiler in a tight-radius corner, he hit a bump, spun into the inside retaining wall, and destroyed his car. This is still a driver with seven top-fives in his last 10 races, however, so we think he will rebound at Kansas.
7. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 8) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Power Average: 9.65
Truex has run much better than he’s finished in the past several weeks. He was among the leaders at Darlington before getting pinched in a three-wide battle that ended his day. The saving grace was that his 24th-place finish was best among the drivers with DNFs and many of those in front of him at Darlington were “also-rans”. Still, that was his third 20-something result in the last five weeks and it is going to catch up to him if he doesn’t reverse his fortune.
8. Alex Bowman (Last week: 4) -4
Weeks in the top 10: 7
Wins: 1 (Las Vegas 1)
Power Average: 9.80
Bowman’s 29th-place finish in the Goodyear 400 was the first time in the last 10 races that he finished outside the top 15. Since winning the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he been solid, but others have shown more raw strength on occasion. The NextGen car is creating some confusion and we do not yet truly know if consistency or power is going to prevail.
9. Kyle Larson (Last week: 9)
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 10.90
We don’t know if Larson’s blown engine last came as the result of his spin, but we do know that for the second consecutive week, he spun by himself. Last week, we believed that was a sign of how often he is on the ragged edge. Perhaps it’s more of an indication that he is pushing too hard to make something happen. Three consecutive top-10s though Dover was a step in the right direction, but now he needs to reset and mount a new charge.
10. Joey Logano (Last week: 10)
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Darlington 1)
Power Average: 12.76
Logano had only one win last year and after taking the trophy for the inaugural Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track race, his results suffered. Winning the pole, Stage 1, and leading the most laps makes the Goodyear 400 a different type of victory, but there was still an air of desperation in his late-race contact with Byron. Three of his last seven attempts ended outside the top 30 while three others have been in the top three.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Denny Hamlin (Richmond 1), and Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1)
Dropped from the Top 10
For the second consecutive week, no driver dropped out of the top 10 this week. Kevin Harvick advanced one spot and almost caught Logano
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Goodyear 400, Joey Logano (+800)
Drydene 400, Chase Elliott (+650)
Geico 500, Ross Chastain (+3000)
Food City Dirt Race, Kyle Busch (+1600)
Blue-Emu 400, William Byron (+750)
Toyota Owners 400, Denny Hamlin (+1200)
EchoPark Grand Prix, Ross Chastain (+1800)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 5.87 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 8.00 | 5 | 3 | |
3. | 8.16 | 7 | 4 | |
4. | 8.40 | 3 | -1 | |
5. | 8.45 | 2 | -3 | |
6. | 9.44 | 6 | 0 | |
7. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 9.65 | 8 | 1 |
8. | 9.80 | 4 | -4 | |
9. | 10.90 | 9 | 0 | |
10. | 12.76 | 10 | 0 | |
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 12.87 | 12 | 1 | |
12. | 13.78 | 11 | -1 | |
13. | 13.92 | 13 | 0 | |
14. | 14.79 | 17 | 3 | |
15. | 16.18 | 16 | 1 | |
16. | 16.18 | 21 | 5 | |
17. | 16.87 | 20 | 3 | |
18. | 17.61 | 15 | -3 | |
19. | 18.00 | 22 | 3 | |
20. | 18.03 | 19 | -1 | |
21. | 18.14 | 18 | -3 | |
22. | 18.63 | 14 | -8 | |
23. | 18.95 | 23 | 0 | |
24. | 19.50 | 25 | 1 | |
25. | 20.44 | 26 | 1 | |
26. | 21.24 | 27 | 1 | |
27. | 21.50 | 24 | -3 | |
28. | 21.78 | 30 | 2 | |
29. | 22.63 | 28 | -1 | |
30. | 24.45 | 29 | -1 | |
31. | 25.00 | 33 | 2 | |
32. | 25.18 | 37 | 5 | |
33. | 25.20 | 31 | -2 | |
34. | 25.31 | 35 | 1 | |
35. | 25.60 | 34 | -1 | |
36. | 27.11 | 32 | -4 | |
37. | 29.00 | 40 | 3 | |
38. | 29.00 | 39 | 1 | |
39. | 29.40 | 41 | 2 | |
40. | 29.84 | 42 | 2 | |
41. | 30.33 | 36 | -5 | |
42. | 30.33 | 43 | 1 | |
43. | 31.29 | 44 | 1 | |
44. | 31.53 | 38 | -6 | |
45. | 31.80 | 46 | 1 | |
46. | 33.92 | 47 | 1 | |
47. | 35.00 | 48 | 1 | |
48. | 36.10 | 45 | -3 | |
49. | 36.80 | 49 | 0 |
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2022, After Week 11 [Dover]
After Week 9 [Bristol dirt]
2021, Week 12 [Darlington 1]
