Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
The season isn’t getting any easier to predict with the 14th different winning coming in Week 20 of the season. This is not the first time this has happened.
The crack stats folks at NBC told us after Christopher Bell’s win that three times previously in the Modern Era, there have been at 14 winners through this stage of the season. Those came in 2002, 2003, and 2011. The 2002 season added one more winner by Race 26; 2003 had 16, which is part of the reason NASCAR made that the cutoff when they launched the playoff style system.
With six races remaining, three of which are on road course or plate track wild cards, two multiple winners from 2021 who are still winless in 2022, and strong runs from drivers like Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace, and Austin Dillon, there is a distinct possibility that three or more new winners could emerge. That will force NASCAR to break out their tiebreaker, which reverts to the points’ standings.
Clearly wins and top-fives are not the best metric of who is running strong, and that is one of the reasons we created a strength-based formula to include Average Running Position, Driver Rating, and Laps Among the Leaders.
Here are the top drivers in the past 45 days, which runs from the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway through last week’s Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Top 10
1. Chase Elliott (Last week: 2) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 20
Weeks as #1: 8
Wins: 3 (Dover, Nashville; Atlanta 2)
Power Average: 5.65
Elliott isn’t taking anything for granted. When asked about his second-place finish at New Hampshire, all he could think about was letting the opportunity to win slip away, which he compared to his effort at Road America. Those 10 extra playoff points would give him a distinct advantage in the final 10 races and there is no guarantee that he won’t hit the same kind of lull in one of those rounds that he did from Kansas Speedway through Gateway.
2. Ross Chastain (Last week: 1) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 16
Weeks as #1: 4
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 7.18
The problem with criticism is that it loses its sting at a certain point. Drivers, fans, and the media can say whatever they want about Chastain – but he is insulated from that so long as team owner Justin Marks supports him, his sponsors are pleased, and he stays off social media. Chastain only needs to adjust his driving style when it starts to produce consequences, but that could come at the wrong time if one of the drivers he’s angered retaliates at an inopportune time. For now, the results continue to be positive, and he has a six-race streak of top-10s.
3. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 3)
Weeks in the top 10: 20
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (All-Star)
Power Average: 7.67
By one measure, last week’s win by Bell didn’t move the needle. Since the No. 20 driver was below him in points, Blaney still has a decent cushion over the cutline and a notable lead over Martin Truex Jr., but with only two spots remaining on points, there should be an ever growing realization that he is probably going to need a win to get into the Championship 16. Last week’s 18th-place finish was a missed opportunity, but he still has four top-10s in his last six starts.
4. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 6) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 20
Power Average: 9.33
In the best of times, Cup races are incredibly hard to win; in the NextGen Era, the numbers speak for themselves with 14 winners in 20 races. Truex must have had a sleepless night on Sunday knowing how close he came to winning the Ambetter 301 and that the next new winner – if it’s not him or Blaney – will knock him out of playoff contention. Truex has run well enough in the past 45 days to be included in this list, but he has only four top-10s in the last 13 races.
5. Kyle Larson (Last week: 4) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 20
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 9.49
Larson’s Auto Club link win may turn out to be extremely important. He pinched teammate Elliott into the wall in that race, perhaps sensing how badly he needed the victory. This is not the title defense he expected at the end of 2021, but one of the biggest reasons no one is talking about his lack of productivity is because everyone is in the same boat. And while he is not dominating the front of the pack, he is riding a streak of eight top-15s.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
6. Kevin Harvick (Last week: 8) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Power Average: 10.30
Harvick is one of several drivers who can win on merit in the three non-wild card races. Currently below the cutline, he has the potential to radically alter the playoff scenario. For the next six weeks, that is all that will be on his mind – but in the big scheme of things, it is probably not what’s most important. Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) has been struggling for the past two seasons and that is a big part of why he is currently on a 60+ winless streak. It’s important for this team to improve, and that is happening with eight top-10s and 10 top-15s in his last 11 attempts.
7. Daniel Suarez (Last week: 5) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 3
Wins: 1 (Sonoma)
Power Average: 10.50
Winning is important, but it’s not the only measure of success. A lot can go wrong in a NASCAR race that costs the W, but when drivers start to string top-10s together, handicappers take note of that pattern. Finishing ninth last week at New Hampshire after spending much of the race among the top 10, Suarez earned his third consecutive top-10. He is now five spots above the cutline with six races remaining, but the battle to avoid being the lowest-ranked driver with a win is intense.
8. Austin Cindric (Last week: 14) +6
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Daytona 1)
Power Average: 10.77
For a little while in the middle of the regular season, Cindric was the low hanging fruit in terms of winning drivers with the fewest points. In the past 45 days, he has found another gear to score six consecutive top-15s that include a pair of top-fives. In the 12 races preceding that streak, he had only three such finishes. With erratic results from Blaney and Joey Logano, it’s important to note that he has the most consistency. That won’t take him all the way to the Championship 4, but it could clear the first two hurdles in the playoffs.
9. Kurt Busch (Last week: 13) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Wins: 1 (Kansas 1)
Power Average: 11.26
Busch’s performance in the past several weeks fairly well describes the NextGen car. One week, a driver hits the setup right and gets a good feel for the car; the next, he struggles. In his last eight races, Busch has a win and two more top-three finishes. At the beginning of the Ambetter 301, he was one of the strongest drivers in the field, but when he was shuffled back in traffic, it became too difficult to pass with near-equal equipment. And before one starts to blame aero dependency, check out the performance of Elliott when he sliced through the field after the team left a lugnut loose.
10. Christopher Bell (Last week: 9) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Wins: 1 (New Hampshire)
Power Average: 12.06
Bell’s worries are not completely over, but with a 100-point advantage over the lowest ranked winning driver, he is probably safe. A single win took him from the bubble to eighth-ranked. Another important number is 85. That is the margin he has over the No. 45, who could potentially be knocked out of contention with six new winners. The odds of that happening are extremely long, but Bell cannot afford to let his guard down and needs as many bonus points possible. With five currently, he would enter the playoffs as the lowest seed.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: William Byron [2] (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1), Denny Hamlin [2] (Richmond 1, Charlotte oval), Joey Logano [2] (Darlington 1, Gateway), Alex Bowman (Las Vegas), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), Kyle Busch (Bristol dirt), and Kurt Busch (Kansas 1), Tyler Reddick (Road America).
Dropped from the Top 10
12. Denny Hamlin (Last week: 10) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Wins: 2 (Richmond 1, Charlotte oval)
Power Average: 14.27
Hamlin has plenty of reason to be frustrated with Chastain, but he cannot allow for that to become a distraction. They raced near one another for sizeable portions of New Hampshire and neither had a particularly strong showing. But Hamlin doesn’t have the luxury of a long streak of top-10s to give him confidence. What he does have is two wins and that keeps him from being the driver most in jeopardy of elimination if there are 17 winners in the regular season.
14. Tyler Reddick (Last week: 7) -7
Weeks in the top 10: 7
Wins: 1 (Road America)
Power Average: 14.97
Reddick is another driver who cannot afford to let his guard down. His Road America win was great, but he is still only four positions above the cutline and nine points ahead of Chase Briscoe as the most likely driver to get dropped if there are more than 16 winners. That possibility must be in every crew chief’s mind, so while Blaney and Truex know they need their first win, Reddick must be open to the fact that it could take two to get him in.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Ambetter 301, Christopher Bell (+1300)
Quaker State 400, Chase Elliott (+1000)
Kwik Trip 250, Tyler Reddick (+2500)
Ally 400, Chase Elliott (+900)
Save Mart 350k, Daniel Suarez (+1400)
Enjoy Illinois 300, Joey Logano (+850)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 5.65 | 2 | 1 | |
2. | 7.18 | 1 | -1 | |
3. | 7.67 | 3 | 0 | |
4. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 9.33 | 6 | 2 |
5. | 9.49 | 4 | -1 | |
6. | 10.30 | 8 | 2 | |
7. | 10.50 | 5 | -2 | |
8. | 10.77 | 14 | 6 | |
9. | 11.26 | 13 | 4 | |
10. | 12.06 | 9 | -1 | |
| ||||
11. | 13.76 | 12 | 1 | |
12. | 14.27 | 10 | -2 | |
13. | 14.80 | 11 | -2 | |
14. | 14.97 | 7 | -7 | |
15. | 15.19 | 18 | 3 | |
16. | 15.71 | 15 | -1 | |
17. | 16.04 | 19 | 2 | |
18. | 16.30 | 23 | 5 | |
19. | 16.50 | 20 | 1 | |
20. | 16.69 | 17 | -3 | |
21. | 17.89 | 30 | 9 | |
22. | 18.43 | 25 | 3 | |
23. | 18.44 | 16 | -7 | |
24. | 18.91 | 22 | -2 | |
25. | 19.29 | 26 | 1 | |
26. | 19.85 | 27 | 1 | |
27. | 20.55 | 33 | 6 | |
28. | 20.73 | 21 | -7 | |
29. | 20.85 | 23 | -6 | |
30. | 21.25 | 29 | -1 | |
31. | 23.50 | 31 | 0 | |
32. | 24.36 | 28 | -4 | |
33. | 26.40 | 34 | 1 | |
34. | 26.52 | 32 | -2 | |
35. | 27.89 | 35 | 0 | |
36. | 28.50 |
| NA | |
37. | 29.80 | 40 | 3 | |
38. | 30.19 | 36 | -2 | |
39. | 30.80 | 39 | 0 | |
40. | 30.81 | 40 | 0 | |
41. | 31.75 | 43 | 2 | |
42. | 33.40 | 44 | 2 | |
43. | 33.80 | 38 | -5 | |
44. | 33.81 | 42 | -2 | |
45. | 36.00 | 45 | 0 |
PointsBet Sportsbook is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
2022, After Week 15 [Gateway]
After Week 4 [Phoenix 1]
2021 After Week 20 [ Atlanta 2]
