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The Xfinity drivers should be well-rested this week after taking a two-week break from racing. When last seen, they were slipping and sliding around Portland International Raceway. When the mist cleared, it was AJ Allmendinger with the victory he hopes will restart his streak of top-10s.
The Jordan Anderson No. 31 with Myatt Snider at the wheel and Richard Childress Racing’s No. 21 with Austin Hill were pleasant surprises, but even in such challenging conditions, the cream rose to the top with Kaulig Racing and JR Motorsports dominating the top 10. Portland was an inaugural race and there were not a lot of notes from which to work.
There’s not a lot more to work with at Nashville Superspeedway. The Nationwide Series raced here until 2011 and there are a few long-toothed veterans who have been around the track for more than a single race. For most of the drivers, however, last year’s experience is all they have, but we can expand the data pool by adding records from Darlington Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway, and Bristol Motor Speedway. Collectively, these rough-surfaced tracks take a lot of the same skills to excel.
This is a going to be a tight race, according to PointsBet Sportsbook odds. As of Friday morning, three drivers were all listed below 5/1 and two others were under 6/1. There is not much distinction among the favorites.
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Proposed Winner
No one has been better on rough-surfaced tracks in the past two seasons than Justin Allgaier (+480). His worst finish in that span was a sixth at Darlington last year, but he came back in 2022 and won the most recent event there. His second-place finish at Dover this spring and Nashville last year make him an extremely easy favorite.
Allgaier enters the week with a current five-race streak of results seventh or better, which underscores his recent strength, but there are a couple of factors that need to be brought up. Before this current streak, Allgaier struggled through five races with a best finish of 14th and an average of 26.4. Rough-surfaced tracks can be tricky on tire wear, so it’s not recommended to bet too heavily on any driver in the field.
Best Bets for a top five
Noah Gragson (+450) has been strong everywhere in recent weeks. He won the Talladega Superspeedway lottery, finished second in Darlington, and has been among the top 10 in five of the last six races. He has not finished worse than 15th in the last two years on rough-surfaced tracks and a win at Darlington last year makes him a likely top-five finisher.
Allmendinger’s (+1000) problems at Charlotte Motor Speedway put an end to a remarkable streak to start the season, but he still has the best recent record in the field. While his two wins this season came of road courses, he’s been close four times with second- or third-place finishes. Most of these were carburetor-restricted superspeedways, but his third-place finish on the short Martinsville Speedway gives his fans hope he can land in the top five. Last year, Allmendinger finished in the top-five on rough-surfaced tracks three times, including a very dramatic win at Bristol when won as he was literally crashing.
Josh Berry’s (+460) Dover win gave us a lot of hope at Darlington, but that race was just as tricky for the Xfinity drivers as those in Cup. Berry’s 18th-place finish there was disappointing, but even with that factored in, he has four top-fives in his last six rough-surface races. Since Darlington, he has been in the top 10 every week with a worst of seventh.
Riley Herbst (+3300) is our dark horse special this week and we’d snap him up before practice and qualification has the chance of lessening his odds. The Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) team fields solid cars and Herbst has proven he can get strong finishes. His third-place finish last fall at Bristol and this spring in Darlington are two of the four top-10s he’s earned on this track type in his last five attempts.
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