Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
Individually, seeing Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, and Daniel Suarez battling for a top-five was not all that surprising. Collectively, it was a different story. Listed at 70/1, Dillon’s second-place finish must have startled the traders. It could have been worse for them because Jones and Suarez were listed at 200/1, which drug their top-five lines to a positive place.
Some other top-10 finishers last week were sixth-place Aric Almirola (80/1), ninth-place Daniel Hemric (200/1), and 10th-place Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+150/1). Jumping on bandwagons can be hazardous. There are no guarantees in NASCAR and the marquee drivers are considered that for a reason. With one unrestricted, intermediate speedway race in the rearview mirror, teams are beginning to create a notebook. Drivers are getting a feel for this car, and it is only a matter of time before they figure it out.
Maybe.
There is also the possibility that the Next Gen car is doing precisely what it is supposed to and hard-to-achieve parity is on the horizon. For now, don’t bet the farm, but a judicious sprinkling of longshots is not entirely out of the question.
We liked Tyler Reddick (+1500 at PointsBet Sportsbook) and Austin Dillon (+3300) enough this week to go ahead and slap them down in the middle of the Best Bets post, [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/best-bets/beavers-best-bets-pennzoil-400-0] which means we are going to have to come up with some other dark horses to fill their ranks. The rest of the mid-sized teams saw what happened last week and want their shot. And when one considers that more than half the field this week has earned at least one top-10 in the past five seasons, that is imminently doable.
Erik Jones (+2500) was not bright enough on our radar last week and that was a mistake. His challenge for the Auto Club win was partly aided by problems for most of the Joe Gibbs guys as well as Kyle Larson’s mistake, (if that’s what it was), in the closing laps that put Chase Elliott in the wall. But there is no reason to believe something like that won’t happen again. Jones earned his position because he became accustomed to the Next Gen car quicker than his competitors at California. That says a lot about a driver with only five years of experience.
Click Here for the Pennzoil 400 Best Bets
We have to consider Joey Logano (+775) a dark horse this week. With the third lowest odds of under 8/1, the traders don’t agree, but they can occasionally become myopic and think marquee teams should always be accounted for at the front of the pack. That was not the case too often in 2021 on this track type. Logano did not earn a single top-five on the 1.5-mile tracks and his two top-10s were just barely inside that mark. Avoid him for now and if he surprises us, think about starting him at Atlanta Motor Speedway in a couple of weeks.
As easily as one race can build momentum, it can be destroyed. Brad Keselowski (+2800) did not do anything wrong at California, but when he was involved in an accident late in the Wise Power 400, he dropped outside the top 25. Teammate Chris Buescher (+10000) had a similarly disappointing race. Reality may settle in for RFK Racing quickly. On the other hand, Keselowski is too good a driver to stay down forever, and money will be made by timing his resurgence correctly.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Kurt Busch (+2800) has long been good for one win per year. In 2021, it took a while before he hit the top of the charts in the Atlanta 2 race, but when he did it was with odds long enough to cover a yearly, consistent bet. His line is not quite that long this week, but it’s early still and if he hits, you can stop worrying about him for a bit. After winning in Atlanta, Busch finished eighth at Vegas and fourth at Kansas Speedway.
Austin Cindric (+3000) kept the momentum from his Daytona 500 win alive by winning the pole at Auto Club. No one was particularly surprised to see him drop back through the pack and finish outside the top 10. Prior to the start of the season, we would have been encouraged by that top-15, however, so he is tracking well. The pressure is off his shoulders for the moment, and that could be worth a tenth or two.
Kaulig Racing is going to be interesting to watch all season. First inclinations are that the fulltime driver/team matchup of Justin Haley (+25000) and the No. 31 should develop chemistry the quickest, but that was not true last week as Daniel Hemric (+20000) earned a hard-fought top-10. In both cases, their long outright win odds this week drag those for a top-10 to a positive number and bettors should consider them if, (and only if), there is a little left in the kitty on Sunday morning.
PointsBet Sportsbook is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Dark Horses for the 2022 Wise Power 400 (Auto Club)
2021 South Point 400 (Las Vegas 2)
2021 EchoPark 500 (Texas)
