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Richard Petty and David Pearson won the first three races at Pocono Raceway. In 1974 and 1976, Petty scored his 161st and 179th wins respectively of the 200 he would eventually record. Pearson won his 87th (of 105) in 1975. That set the tone as more than two-thirds of the races on this track have been a driver’s 10th or greater win.
Eight of the last nine races on this track have been a driver’s 17th or greater win, which loudly suggests that one of the veterans will take the checkers. That doesn’t mean they won’t be a longshot, however, as several of the old guys with lines above 20/1 have a shot at winning this week.
Additionally, this season is not like anything seen in the past decade. The NextGen car is changing the rules. This year, five drivers have earned their first Cup wins, three others earned a second or third victory, and half of the wins have been a driver’s seventh or less.
Through 20 races, there have been 14 different winners and so far this season, there have been repeat winners in back-to-back races only once when Denny Hamlin won his second of 2022 at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Joey Logano got his second at World Wide Technology Raceway. The last six weeks have alternated repeat and new winners and if that pattern holds, we can expect three more before the playoffs start. Problem is: there are only two slots open in the Championship 16.
Brad Keselowski (+5000) scored his first top-10 of 2022 on an unrestricted oval last week when he was seventh in the Ambetter 301. The odds are great that he will finish that well for a second straight week because Pocono is one of his best tracks with 11 top-10s and an 11th in his last 13 races there. Even with the NextGen car, this is a track that rewards experience. Winning is a long shot, but he does have one victory on this track in 2011. Since then, he’s finished third or better six times, including in the most recent race in last year’s Sunday portion of the doubleheader.
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Kyle Busch (+700) is the PointsBet Sportsbook odds favorite this week, but we don’t agree. It’s rare to see him go five races without a top-10. In fact, it hasn’t happened since early fall, 2014 when he was involved in a series of crashes in a run of bad luck. This time he’s languishing because the performance isn’t there. The No. 18 team is in turmoil. Unable to find a sponsor for Busch, they run the risk of losing him at the end of the season and that distraction seems to be taking a toll.
Failing to crack the top 15 in his first 11 Pocono attempts, Aric Almirola (+5000) got off to a slow start. He finished seventh in his first try on this track with Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) and earned three more of those and a 12th in his next five races. Two of these were a sweep of the top five in 2020. Last year was not as strong; he finished 16th in both halves of the doubleheader, but with 50/1 odds, he is worth a modest bet. On another sportsbook, he’s listed at +150 for a top-10, which makes a good cover for the outright win.
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Tyler Reddick (+2500) is hovering on the cusp of being a favorite for a top-10 some weeks, but he lacks the experience to make you want to pull the trigger on a bet. He came so close to winning on so many occasions that no one was sad to see him win at Road America, but that victory comes in the middle of five results outside the top 15. Pocono could give him another top-10 and with the tight battle going on to avoid being the lowest winning driver in the points, (on the chance there are 17 or more winners), he needs strong runs. Last year, he finished 11th on Saturday and ninth on Sunday.
Bubba Wallace (+3000) is coming off a strong showing last week at New Hampshire and he swept the top 15 at Pocono last year. His confidence level is at an all-time high because he raced with the leaders for most of the afternoon on an unrestricted oval. That is where he and the team must improve if they want to take the No. 23 to the next level. With the recent announcement that Reddick will join this organization in 2024 and hints that Kurt Busch might retire at the same time, Wallace needs to step up to the plate.
We’re going to reach deep into the bag for this dark horse and suggest Noah Gragson (+50000) is worth looking at. Not for the win, although at 500/1 it’s worth skipping the morning Starbucks to roll the dice, but his long adds drag those for a top-10 to +1500. The Kaulig Racing equipment can challenge for a single-digit result and this is a driver who needs to resuscitate his reputation. The only way to do that is to run well in the M&Ms 400 and not wreck anyone.
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