For the past few seasons NASCAR has severely limited the number of races Cup regulars could make in the Xfinity and Truck series. The result has been to contribute to more victories for the series regulars and it has opened up choices for bettors to wager on drivers with longer odds than prohibitive favorites produce.
And then there is Kyle Busch, who skews the numbers regularly when he is in either support division.
When Busch is in the field, he typically has minus odds for the outright win. He always deserves them, but his presence allows for longer lines for the regulars. Busch is always in contention, but it’s impossible for anyone to win every week and that provides an opportunity for bold gamblers to put a stake on the competition. Just make certain it’s money you can afford to lose.
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Proposed Winner
Busch (-134) might not win every race, but considering that he is the best driver in the field, in the best equipment, and gunning for a triple digit record that has only been accomplished by Richard Petty and David Pearson in the Cup series, it’s going to be tough on the competition to see him on the track except when he is lapping them or the race is under caution.
Factor in that Busch has experience on this track and that he’s won in both Xfinity (2009) and Truck (2010 and 2011) and the only way to justify fading him is with the caveat that anything can happen in a NASCAR race. He could become momentarily distracted by a hangnail and scrape the wall. Or: he could get nabbed for speeding on pit road.
In the one and only practice for the Ally 400, Busch was more than one mile per hour faster than the field.
Best Bets for a top five
Harrison Burton opened this week with +1400 odds. In another Joe Gibbs Racing car, he posted the second-fastest lap in practice and is the driver most likely to take advantage of anything that happens to teammate Busch. And Burton knows full well that anything can happen – because it has happened to him in the past two weeks. Burton crashed out of the Mid-Ohio Sport Car Course and Texas Motor Speedway to finish in the 30s. If his bad luck is behind him, he might be able to reclaim some of the momentum he had with a third-place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Austin Cindric (+550) is riding a three-race streak of top-five finishes on ovals that includes a win in the most recent race on a rough-surfaced track. That string would almost certainly be longer if not for an accident at Darlington Raceway with one lap remaining in the event. Cindric is riding high and his top-three odds are in the plus range. Cindric posted the fifth-fastest time in practice
AJ Allmendinger (+1200) has been hit-or-miss this season, but this is a team with a lot on their minds. The handful of Cup races they are attempting and preparations to go full time in 2022 will make them stronger in the long run and it probably contributed to the eight top-five finishes and a sixth they have earned in 14 Xfinity events this year. Allmendinger already has one oval win to his credit earlier this season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. When he is not sixth or better, Allmendinger has been outside the top 10. The good news is that he was fast in practice with the third-best time.
Daniel Hemric (+1400) is the other driver in the top five in practice, landing fourth on the chart. He needs to make the most out his time with Joe Gibbs Racing, but that is simply not happening at the moment. He was fifth on the rough-surface Darlington Raceway and ninth at Dover, but he slipped outside the top-10 in his next three starts. Two of these came on road courses and might not affect him this week considering he rebounded to finish fourth at Texas. His odds for a top-three are listed at +325.
Justin Allgaier (+550) deserves some action this week. He won at Darlington and finished third the next week at Dover, giving him great momentum on rough-surfaced tracks. Last week, he was in the runner-up position behind Busch. If he can do that again, it’s worth a modest return of +135 for a top-three.
Alsco Uniforms 250 best bets (Texas)
Drydene 200 Best Bets (Dover)
Steakhouse Elite 200 Best bets (Darlington)