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My UFC betting package this week includes three plus money plays. Follow me on Twitter to get any plays I may tweet out on fight day. You can find me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC and please also follow Ike Feldman @IkeFeldman, my Combat Sports partner for NBC Sports Edge Betting @NBCSportsEdge.
Main Card Prop: Yadong Song to win in Round 3 or Decision (+118)
Yadong Song vs Julio Arce is going to be a good, close fight. Song is a powerful striker who lands 4.91 strikes per minute. This fight should stay standing. The fighter who lands more damage should win rounds and get this win. Song trains at Alpha Male and improves every fight. He’s still only 23 years old. Julio Arce dropped down to 135 lbs vs Andre Ewell in his last fight and finished him in the second round. Song will have the speed advantage and power advantage in this fight.
Parlay: 1st Leg Ben Rothwell to Win
2nd Leg Courtney Casey to Win (+133)
Ben Rothwell has a favorable matchup vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Rothwell holds a size advantage and needs to get this fight into round 2. Rogerio de Lima throws powerful hooks and leg kicks. Rogerio also runs out of gas and at that point I see Rothwell taking over and finishing the fight. Rothwell is going to maul Rogerio on the feet and take him down once he slows down his pace.
Courtney Casey has multiple paths to victory. She needs to stay out of the armbar on the ground which seems like Liana Jojua’s path to victory. Casey has found herself on the wrong side of a few split decisions. She is the better fighter anywhere this fight goes and simply needs to stay out of flash submission attempts.
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Parlay: 1st Leg Max Holloway to win in round 4, 5 or Decision
2nd Leg Thiago Moises (+143)
Max Holloway is going to find his groove and overwhelm Yair Rodriguez with his striking volume and pressure. This is Holloway’s tenth consecutive fight that has been scheduled for 5 rounds. He’s been all five rounds his last five fights and strikes at an amazing 7.26 strikes landed per minute average. Max connected on 445 strikes vs Calvin Kattar and 290 strikes vs Brian Ortega. His volume is unheard of in the sport of MMA and he will win rounds vs Yair Rodriguez will that volume and pressure. Yair is a flashy striker and he’ll need to land a creative strike to catch Holloway for the upset win in this matchup.
Thiago Moises is a better fighter than Joel Alvarez anywhere this fight goes. Joel is big for the division. He’ll hold a 6-inch height advantage and a 7-inch reach advantage. Let’s make sure Alvarez makes weight here since he missed last time out. That weight miss was strategic. Alvarez has a tough time getting down and his chin may be compromised as a result. You can sprinkle Moises by KO/TKO for a big payout.
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