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UFC 269 is a tremendous card, top to bottom, and features the UFC Lightweight Title Fight between Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier. This card will be at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In the co-main event, Amanda Nunes defends her UFC Bantamweight Title vs Juliana Pena. This card is tacked with good fights and talented fighters.
The Skillset of Dustin Poirier
Dustin Poirier is a well-rounded mixed martial artist. He trains out of the gym American Top Team in Florida and his head coach is Mike Brown. He is coming off back-to-back victories over Conor McGregor in which he was able to showcase his boxing skills. He prefers to keep the fight standing and strike with his opponents. Dustin Poirier will weigh approximately 185 pounds out of competition and cut down to 155 pounds for weigh-ins. This cut allows him to carry power deep into fights. Dustin is often the thicker fighter on fight night. He is a fantastic striker with power but he also holds a BJJ Black Belt from former UFC fighter Tim Credeur.
The Skillset of Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira trains in Brazil. The gym is named Chute Boxe Diego Lima and he is trained by Diego Lima. His striking has come a long way over the last few years. He was able to overcome adversity in round 1 vs Michael Chandler to win the UFC title. This will be his first title defense. Charles do Bronx Oliveira is best known for his submissions. He holds the UFC record for most submission wins with 14. He is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt.
The Stats
- Charles Oliveira holds a one-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage
- Dustin Poirier averages 5.62 strikes landed per minute with a 50% accuracy while Charles Oliveira averages 3.26 strikes landed per minute with 52% accuracy
- Oliveira has a knockdown rate of 1.55% while Poirier has a knockdown rate of 1.00%
- Oliveira averages 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes while Poirier averages 1.5 takedowns per minute, they each hover around a 60% takedown defense
- Charles Oliveira has a submission average of 2.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes
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Picking a Winner
My pick to win the Main Event:
- Dustin Poirier
My preferred bet for the Main Event:
- Dustin Poirier by KO/TKO (+148)
Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier will be the first time in UFC history that we see:
— MMA By The Numbers (@NumbersMMA) December 6, 2021
Someone with 10+ UFC submissions (Oliveira, 14)
vs.
Someone with 10+ UFC KO/TKOs (Poirier, 10)#UFC269
Charles Oliveira has earned everyone’s respect in the UFC. He is opportunistic on the mat and his striking is vastly improved. It is unlikely that Charles wins a striking battle with Dustin Poirier. Charles’s best chance to catch Dustin with a fight-ending punch is in round 1. Dustin did have a slow start vs Dan Hooker and went down two rounds before turning it up to win a decision. Dustin has had some brawls in the octagon, most notably with Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez. He seems to get better as the fight moves into the deeper rounds. His power carries into those late rounds.
By contrast, Charles Oliveira hasn’t seen round 4 in his UFC career. Charles needs to find a way to get this fight grounded. He will be at an advantage if he can get top control with some time left before the end of the round.
Dustin Poirier wants to keep this fight standing and wear out Charles Oliveira will strikes. Poirier will find his range in round 1 and pressure Charles in an attempt to gas him until he is able to land a power shot to finish this fight. My pick to win is Dustin Poirier.
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