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My UFC betting package this week is loaded. This is the last UFC PPV of 2021 and this card is loaded! Be sure to read my main event preview for a more in debt breakdown of my main event bet. Follow me on Twitter to get any plays I may tweet out on fight day. You can find me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC and please also follow Ike Feldman @IkeFeldman, my Combat Sports partner for NBC Sports Edge Betting @NBCSportsEdge.
Prelim Prop: Gillian Robertson by Submission (+108)
This fight leads off the card for good reason. The UFC expects this fight to finish. Gillian Robertson takes on the hard-hitting Priscila Cachoeira. I expect one of two outcomes in this fight. Cachoeira has a path to victory if she can keep this fight standing. Cachoeira is a powerful striker and can finish this fight by KO/TKO. The more likely outcome is for Gillian Robertson to get this fight to the ground and work her submission game. Cachoeira has been taken down 8 times in the UFC. Gillian Robertson will look to get Cachoeira to the ground from the first minute of this fight and if successful with the takedown attempt she will have opportunities to lock in the submission. Robertson should end this fight in round 1 by armbar or rear-naked choke.
Here are the RD 1 Finish numbers for #UFC269
— The Monkmatician (@MonkMMAtics) December 10, 2021
Most Rd 1 Finish Ws:
1) A Nunes - 9
2) D Poirier/C Oliveira - 7
3) T Tuivasa/P Munhoz - 5
Most Rd 1 Finish Ls:
1) C Oliveira - 4
2) M Schnell - 3
3) A Perez/G Robertson/C Garbrandt/D Poirier - 2#MMATwitter #GamblingTwiitter #UFC pic.twitter.com/rWxk6bdO7V
Main Card Prop: Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO (+112)
Sean O’Malley is a rock star in this fighting game. He has the superstar look, finishing striking power, and does great work on the microphone. I was surprised to see the KO/TKO prop was plus money. O’Malley’s opponent is Raulian Paiva. Paiva is a good striker but he doesn’t possess the striking volume or power in his punches to hang with Suga Sean O’Malley. I expect O’Malley to dismantle Paiva and style on him for as long as this fight lasts. Paiva is tough and will hang in there but the referee is bound to stop this from a barrage of strikes that Paiva fails to answer. O’Malley should finish this fight within two rounds.
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Main Event Prop: Dustin Poirier by KO/TKO (+128)
I hope everyone read my main event breakdown earlier this week. My preferred bet for this fight was the Poirier KO/TKO prop priced at +148. The price has come down on Pointsbet but I still like the plus money on this prop. Charles Oliveira has only been to a 3 round decision on one occasion in his last fifteen fights. My expectation is that Dustin Poirier is going to pressure Charles Oliveira in a similar fashion to Paul Felder and Michael Chandler. The pressure has been effective vs Charles Oliveira. Dustin Poirier is more defensively sound in his striking and grappling than Michael Chandler. Poirier also cuts a massive amount of weight and will be stepping into the octagon around 175 pounds. That extra weight will allow Poirier’s power to carry into the later rounds and eventually get the KO/TKO finish of Charles Oliveira.
Other bets to consider:
- Ryan Hall by Submission (+134)
- Amanda Nunes by Submission (+450)
- Parlay: Miranda Maverick & Sean O’Malley (+124)
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