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My UFC betting package this week includes six plays. This is the UFC’s return to The World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden. I was at the New York Hilton Midtown on Friday morning for the official weigh-ins and I will be at UFC 268 with UFC-issued press credentials. I previewed the main event earlier this week. Look up my article on Usman vs Covington II. I broke down the fight and made my prediction. I also was a guest on BET THE EDGE on Thursday and gave bets I liked for Usman/Covington, Namajunas/Zhang, Gaethje/Chandler, and Edgar/Vera. Follow me on Twitter to get any additional plays I may tweet out on Saturday along with fight news and all my takes on the card. You can find me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC and please also follow Ike Feldman @IkeFeldman, my Combat Sports partner for NBC Sports Edge Betting @NBCSportsEdge.
Prelim Prop: Ode Osbourne by KO/TKO (+270)
This is the curtain jerker and this could very well set up the theme for this card, striking heavy attacks. Osbourne’s last eight fights have all finished in the first round. His opponent, CJ Vergara, has not seen the scorecards in his last six fights. If you want a safe line, Fight won’t start round 3 is lined at -112. The value play is Ode Osbourne by KO/TKO. He has a 5-inch reach advantage, his hand speed is excellent, and uses his kicks. He was getting the better of the striking exchanges vs Manel Kape until he got caught with a flying knee. He closes the distance and stalks his opponent. He should finish this fight early.
Prelim Prop: Melsik Baghdasaryan by KO/TKO (+120)
This fight will play out on the feet, standing, so I want the more powerful striker. Melsik Baghdasaryan uses his boxing and kickboxing skills. He also carries more power than his opponent. The concern he should have with Bruno Silva is his kicking game. I like the plus money on Melsik to pick his spots and hurt Silva standing.
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Parlay: 1st Leg Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO or Decision
2nd Leg Shane Burgos (Parlays pays +105)
Dustin Jacoby comes in on short notice and should be able to handle John Allan. Jacoby has superior striking volume and accuracy. He will look to keep this fight standing and win rounds with the aforementioned striking advantages.
Shane Burgos cuts a lot of weight to cut down to 145 lbs for weigh-ins. He usually looks like the bigger fighter on fight night after he hydrates and that should help him here. The concern with Shane is he fights with his hands down. He has tremendous hand speed and power for the division but he has been clipped late in fights. Shane’s opponent, Billy Quarantillo, doesn’t possess much power so Shane should land the bigger strikes to win a decision.
Prelim Prop: Ian Garry/Under 2.5 Rounds (-122)
Ian Garry is the next hype train from Ireland. He has molded himself in the likeness of Conor McGregor. This bet is as much about the skills of Garry as it is about the gas tank concerns for his opponent Jordan Williams. Williams is a diabetic and struggles to cut weight. In his previous fight at 170 lbs, Mickey Gall got the best of him striking and was able to finish him in round one. Ian Garry should have a bigger advantage in the striking department and get this finish.
Prelim Prop: Bobby Green by Points (-118)
Bobby Green’s last ten fights have gone to decision so coming to the conclusion that this fight would follow suit was not a tough decision. Bobby is fighting Al Iaquinta in his home state of New York. Iaquinta hasn’t fought in over two years. My concern with this fight is the judging but I take confidence knowing Bobby has the higher strike output and the better striking defense. He is especially known for his shoulder roll on defense. Bobby Green should get the win on the scorecards.
Ready to add to his highlight reel, Justin Gaethje weighed in at 155.6 pounds ⚖️ #UFC268 pic.twitter.com/NreEXmwhNS
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 5, 2021
Main Card Prop: Justin Gaethje/Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler are going to have a violent fight. These two fighters have similar styles in the octagon. Gaethje is simply much better. His leg kicks are powerful and can finish a fight. His power in his striking can finish a fight in various ways. We’ve seen him finish with left hooks, right hooks, and also do plenty of damage with his uppercut. Gaethje’s also been a better defensive fighter recently and has been slipping punches and returning powerful strikes towards his opponents. The winner of this fight deserves the next title shot vs the winner of Oliveira and Poirier. That winner will be Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO.
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