Phoenix, Arizona plays host to an electric fight card on Saturday night with an action-packed main event featuring Charles Oliveira defending his UFC Lightweight Title against Justin Gaethje. The UFC Lightweight division is stacked with title challengers and Charles Oliveira has already defeated the likes of Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier to earn this belt and he’s defended it once previously. He will need to earn another victory vs The Highlight Justin Gaethje who will bring the pressure. These men will have to walk through the fire to earn a victory in this matchup. There are plenty of fighters waiting for the winner and their chance to obtain UFC gold. Islam Machechev seems destined for a title shot in the near future while Beneil Dariush is equally deserving of being in the title picture at Lightweight. The next few months in this division are going to be exciting.
The Skillset of Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira is a well-rounded mixed martial artist and high-level finisher. On the feet, Charles mixes his punches and kicks to keep his opponents at distance. He attacked the body vs Dustin Poirier with precision. He is able to clinch when needed and wrap up a submission attempt quickly on the ground or in the scrambles to the ground. He is in perpetual motion while constantly on the attack. His game plan will feature front kicks early to keep the distance. He has been willing to get into a firefight and exchange in the pocket. He will use a jumping knee to close distance and clinch with his opponent. He is durable when he gets hurt and is able to defend himself on the ground while he recovers. His recoverability will be put to the ultimate test vs Justin Gaethje.
The Skillset of Justin Gaethje
Justin Gaethje is a fun fighter to watch. He wants to knock out his opponent and everyone knows his plan. You can spend time watching his previous fights or listening to him in interviews and the game plan is very clear. Justin Gaethje attacks the head with hooks and uppercuts. He will also attack your leg with calf kicks. His calf kicks are heavy and his head strikes are thrown with bad intentions. He is looking to finish his fights early. It should be noted that Justin also has a wrestling pedigree.
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The Stats
- Justin Gaethje possesses a one-inch height advantage
- Charles Oliveira possesses a four-inch reach advantage
- Justin Gaethje lands 7.5 strikes per minute while Charles Oliveira lands 3.44 strikes per minute
- Charles Oliveira averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.8 submissions attempts per 15 minutes
- Justin Gaethje has a 73% takedown defense and has been taken down by four different opponents
Picking a Winner
My pick to win the Main Event:
- Charles Oliveira
My preferred bet for the Main Event:
- Prop: Charles Oliveira & Under 2.5 Rounds (+200) on Pointsbet
These two fighters are going to walk forward and exchange. Justin Gaethje is a pressure fighter and regrets his gameplan vs Khabib Nurmagomedov in which he tried to use lateral movement to avoid grappling and the threat of the takedown. To that end, we can expect Justin Gaethje to play to his strengths in this title fight, enter the pocket, and exchange. Charles Oliveira has more paths to victory in this matchup but he did exchange with Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier so we should expect fireworks in round one. One of these fighters is going to get clipped in round one in the pocket which could end the fight quickly if they are not able to recover.
We can play out both scenarios. If Gaethje gets hurt in the pocket, Charles Oliveira is going to take advantage and lock up a submission to win this fight. If Oliveira gets hurt in the pocket, he is going to grapple which makes him dangerous on the ground. Charles Oliveira may not be able to play the long game in this matchup but dragging Gaethje into rounds two and three will put Charles in the driver’s seat. Oliveira can force the clinch with his jump knee and look to strike in the clinch. Oliveira can also invest in front kicks while attacking the body early in this fight to slow Gaethje down. Fight fans should be on the edge of their seats in round one. Charles Oliveira finishes via submission in rounds one or two.
