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UFC 270 Main Event Preview: Francis N’Gannou vs Ciryl Gane

Ciryl Gane

Ciryl Gane

Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports

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Francis N’Gannou faces off with Ciryl Gane at UFC 270 on Saturday night for the UFC Heavyweight Title. This fight card takes place in Anaheim, California. The betting line opened with Francis N’Gannou as the favorite but that line has flipped and Ciryl Gane currently sits as the betting favorite.

Francis N’Gannou won the UFC Heavyweight Title by finishing Stipe Miocic by KO in March of 2021. Francis avenged his loss to Stipe in 2018. This fight vs Ciryl Gane will be Francis’s first title defense and the last fight on his current UFC contract.

Cyril Gane earned the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship by finishing Derrick Lewis by ground and pound in August of 2021. The narrative surrounding this interim fight was that Francis claimed he only needed another month to ready himself to fight Cyril Gane but the UFC opted to make the interim title fight and unify the Heavyweight Title at a later date.

The storyline that has been front and center entering this fight centers around Coach Fernand Lopez. Coach Lopez is the head coach at MMA Factory in France. Lopez is credited with giving Francis N’Gannou his chance to train when he was homeless walking the streets of France. Francis has since left the gym and Lopez is now coaching Ciryl Gane. Francis and Ciryl have also trained together at MMA Factory. Some of that training footage was released by Ciryl’s team over the last few weeks.

The Skillset of Francis N’Gannou

Francis N’Gannou is a power puncher. He has 11 UFC wins and they have all come in rounds 1 or two, ten of them by KO/TKO. He is a low-volume striker. His wrestling was vastly improved in the last Stipe Miocic fight. He will use occasional leg kicks and has a tendency to get wild with his hooks. Make no mistake about it, Francis N’Gannou is the most powerful puncher the UFC Heavyweight division has ever seen. Francis now trains out of Team Xtreme Couture MMA with Coach Eric Nicksick. It’ll be interesting to see the improvements Francis has made for this fight.

The Skillset of Ciryl Gane

Ciryl Gane is a fleet-footed kickboxer. He is very light on his feet and uses movement to his advantage. His speed allows him to enter the pocket to strike and get out of the pocket unscathed. He has a good kicking game at that distance and is able to evade his opponent when they enter the pocket to strike and chase him. He is difficult to angle off to force the striking exchanges. He has good power but has shown the willingness to be patient and touch his opponent with accurate strikes. His skillset serves him well in the heavyweight division in which most of his opponents are slower, plodding, and do not possess the cardio to chase him around the octagon.

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The Stats

  • Both fighters stand 6’4” and will most likely differ in weight by approximately 5 pounds
  • Francis N/Gannou holds a 2-inch reach advantage
  • Chikadze holds a 1-inch height advantage and 2-inch reach advantage
  • N’Gannou averages 2.54 strikes landed per minute, Gane averages 5.37 strikes landed per minute

Picking a Winner

My pick to win the Main Event:

  • Francis N’Gannou

My preferred bet for the Main Event:

  • Moneyline: Francis N’Gannou +135
  • Prop: Francis N’Gannou and Under 2.5 Rounds

Patient striking and distance management is the path to victory for Ciryl Gane. Gane will win this fight with a late finish or by decision with his volume striking if he has success with this game plan. This plan is nothing new for Ciryl and is to be expected in this matchup.

Francis N’Gannou has a few options. Francis can rush Ciryl early in the fight, similar to his approach vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik, which would turn this into a firefight in round 1. Another option is that Francis can play the long game with Ciryl, similar to his performance vs Derrick Lewis which was a total bust. Francis was outstruck by Lewis and lost a unanimous decision. The third option that favors power and strength is Francis walks forward and puts his hands on Ciryl. Francis can look to clinch up with Ciryl and strike off the break which is the path I’d like to see him employ early. Francis can push him back against the cage and unload punches with Ciryl’s back against the cage. This option could essentially turn the fight into a firefight also. Cyril is elusive but he did end up in a few clinch situations in his fight vs Derrick Lewis. Lewis was not able to keep Gane against the cage but it’s possible Francis can win positional control and unload punches in that tight window. This fight is going to be very interesting to watch.

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