Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why Elly De La Cruz is climbing the ranks and closing in on Corbin Carroll for NL Rookie of the Year.
NL Rookie of the Year: Elly De La Cruz (+280)
The NL Rookie of the Year race is coming down to a two-man race between Arizona’s Corbin Carroll (-360) and Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz (+280).
Both players are two of the most exciting athletes in baseball and while Carroll has dropped out of the NL MVP conversation, De La Cruz has entered the NL ROY chat.
The Reds are 21-6 in the 27 games De La Cruz has played and he’s posted a .325 batting average, .887 OPS, four homers, 16 RBIs, 16 stolen bases and 28 runs scored (averages 1.0 run scored per game).
In front of the home crowd, De La Cruz is hitting an absurd .347 and 1.005 OPS with three of his four homers. He is truly one of the most exciting players to watch and if you haven’t seen him steal three bases on two pitches, including home, check it out here.
Some of his other rookie highlights were a towering 458-foot homer and clocking a triple at an MLB-best 10.93 seconds.
Cincy is 50-41 on the season and 1.0 game up on Milwaukee for first-place in the NL Central. With De La Cruz, the Reds amassed their first 12-game winning streak since 1957.
Through nine July games, De La Cruz is hitting .368 with a .901 OPS, 14 hits, seven runs scored, seven stolen bases and four RBIs.
I don’t expect the Reds’ slugger to slow down in the second-half and if he can maintain a .300 batting average with 40+ stolen bases, 40+ RBIs and hold his 1.0 run scored per game average, then Carroll needs to watch out.
However, Carroll averages a .289 batting average, a .915 OPS, plus 18 homers, 63 runs scored and 48 RBIs through 86 games with a 3.8 WAR. Carroll is no slouch or a push over in this market, but Vegas is closing the odds between the two for a reason.
De La Cruz opened the season around +1200 at most shops to win NL ROY and have steadily closed the gap over the past four weeks. I played De La Cruz at +280 and would go down to +200.
Carroll played 32 games last year and 86 this season (118 total games), so has an advantage over De La Cruz who likely won’t reach 75 games played, but with this being a two-man race, I will take the underdog with a ton of upside.
Cincy was tied for the third-worst record in baseball last year (62-100). The Reds are 12 wins away from that 62-win total last year and on pace to make the postseason as the NL Central champ or a Wild Card squad and De La Cruz is a large reason why.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz to win NL Rookie of the Year (1u)
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