Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow and Orioles’ Corbin Burnes and why they have value in the AL and NL CY Young markets.
National League CY Young: Tyler Glasnow (+600)
In seven overall starts with the Dodgers, Tyler Glasnow has an MLB-best 53 strikeouts over 43.0 innings (5th) and a 2.72 ERA (23rd).
After tonight’s start against the Braves, Glasnow will be back in the major league lead for strikeouts and innings pitched. The Dodgers’ latest superstar has led Los Angeles to a 6-1 record when he pitches, to go along with a 5-1 record himself.
While he’s only started three road or neutral field games, Glasnow dominated at Minnesota and Toronto posting a 1.50 ERA, .117 OBA, and 26 strikeouts to seven walks over 18.0 innings, and wasn’t too shabby in the opener against the Padres.
His next road start will be at San Diego, who just acquired Luis Arraez (2023 NL batting champion) from the Marlins, but first, he will start a home game versus the Atlanta Braves high powered offense.
If Glasnow and the Dodgers pull off back-to-back wins over his next starts against the Braves and Padres, I expect the former Pirates and Rays ace to be the favorite in the NL CY Young market. I played Glasnow to win NL CY Young at +600 odds on DraftKings. He is between +500 and +550 at most shops. I’d go down to +400.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow to win NL CY Young (1u)
American League CY Young: Corbin Burnes (+400)
Corbin Burnes suffered his first loss of the season (2-0 loss vs Yankees), which makes this a good time to get involved in his CY Young odds.
The Orioles’ latest ace opened the season with 11 strikeouts against the Angels and allowed 11 earned runs over the next six games. Burnes’ only issue thus far is the home run ball, allowing one run in six out of seven starts this far, but two or fewer earned runs permitted in five of seven.
Burnes is up to his normal strikeout tricks ranking in the 70th percentile in chase percentage (Glasnow is in 32nd) and in the top 10 for pitching run value, fastball run value, and offspeed run value, per baseball savant.
The former Brewer has 41 strikeouts (18th) to nine walks with top 10 ranks across the American League for ERA (2.61), WHIP (0.92), OBA (.193), innings pitched (41.1), and starts (7).
Baltimore won the American East last season and despite New York being the favorite, I like Baltimore’s value at +180 to repeat and win the AL East, plus +1200 to have the best record in baseball. If either thing happens, it’s likely Burnes is a key factor and will have the best season since 2020 or 2021.
I played Burnes at +400 to win AL CY Young on DraftKings, this is +320 or lower at other bookmakers. I’d go down to +300.
Pick: Corbin Burnes to win AL CY Young (1u)
MLB Futures in my pocket
2u: Hunter Greene Over 183.5 Strikeouts (-106)
2u: Jesus Luzardo Over 189.5 Strikeouts (-110)
1u: Tyler Glasnow to win NL CY Young (+600)
1u: Corbin Burnes to win AL CY Young (+400)
1u: Ronald Acuna Jr. to win NL MVP (+500)
1u: Julio Rodriguez to win AL MVP (+1000)
1u: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (+1500)
1u: Elly De La Cruz to lead MLB in triples (+750)
1u: Elly De La Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+700)
1u: Elly De La Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+200)
1u: Jesus Luzardo to lead MLB in strikeouts (+3000)
1u: Hunter Greene to lead MLB in Strikeouts (+1700)
1u: Rockies to have the worst record in MLB (+220)
0.5u: Paul Skenes to win NL ROY (+2300)
0.25u: Elly De La Cruz to lead MLB in HRs (+6500)
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