Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bets for the Wednesday card, including Lucas Giolito taking on the Los Angeles Angels, and a ML pick between the Yankees and Athletics.
Lucas Giolito O/U 17.5 Outs vs. Angels
The Angels held Michael Kopech to 4.0 innings of work yesterday and Chicago turns to Lucas Giolito to avoid the sweep.
The 28-year-old RHP has a 1.50 ERA in four June starts over 24.0 innings. Giolito has gone 6.0 or more innings (18 outs) in three out of four games with two earned runs or less in all four.
Giolito owns a .196 OBA over the past five starts (2.17 ERA) and has success against the Angels’ hitters.
Collectively, Giolito has 126 plate appearances for a 27.0 K% and .256 OBA with 34 strikeouts to seven walks, and 30 hits.
In his eight starts versus Los Angeles, Giolito went 6.0 or more innings in five (62.5%) and three out of four (75%) in L.A.
On the season, Giolito is 11-3 to the Over 17.5 Outs in the past 14 starts (78.5%) and 11-5 overall (68.7%).
I played the Over 17.5 for -150 odds and would pass on the Over 18.5 Outs as he is 12-4 to the Under 18.5 (75%).
Pick: Lucas Gilito Over 17.5 Outs (1u)
Yankees (-150) at Athletics (+130): O/U 7.5
The Oakland A’s won Game 1 of their series versus the New York Yankees yesterday, 2-1, and I turn to the Yankees to avenge that loss in Game 2.
J.P. Sears will toss for Oakland and I have faded him four-straight starts, winning three of them. I will run it back on fading Sears, although I will admit, he’s pitched decently with a 3.42 ERA and .190 OBA in June.
However, Sears has struggled against the Yankees’ hitters. In his career, Sears has 41 plate appearances, a .308 OBA, .641 SLG and 12 hits to seven strikeouts (three homers, two walks).
There is potential for multiple Yankees’ hitters to have success versus Sears yet again like DJ LeMahieu (2 H, 1 HR in 6 PA), Oswaldo Cabrera (4 H, 1 HR in 5 PA), Anthony Rizzo (2 H in 3 PA) or Josh Donaldson (2 BB, 1 H in 3 PA).
On the other side, Domingo German goes for New York and he’s been impressive in a short 24-plate appearance sample size (.143 OBA, 8 Ks).
New York lost two-straight after winning four consecutive behind German’s starts.
I like this bounce back spot for German and the Yankees who won three-straight road starts at Toronto, Seattle and the L.A. Dodgers before dropping one at Fenway.
Give me the Yankees on the ML at -150 odds and would risk 1.5 units out to -175. I will likely be on the Yankees tomorrow as well.
Pick: Yankees ML (1u)
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