Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite plays for Tuesday, including Freddie Freeman to hit a dinger, Michael Kopech’s outs prop and Brewers versus Mets.
Brewers (+120) at Mets (-140): O/U 9.0
Milwaukee earned a 2-1 victory over Justin Verlander yesterday and will take on David Peterson and the Mets today in hopes of doing it again.
Peterson is a LHP that has struggled on the season with a 1-6 record and 8.08 ERA. New York has gone 1-7 in his eight starts, including a 7-6 loss versus Milwaukee earlier this season where he recorded five hits, five earned runs, five walks and five strikeouts over 4.0 innings (92 pitches) back on April 5.
Well, Milwaukee ranks last in the MLB versus LHP when it comes to batting average (.216), SLG (.350), OPS (.647), RBIs (58) and triples (0). The Brewers also rank bottom five in a plethora of other categories against LHP and lost three out of five this month.
Milwaukee has not faced a starting LHP since June 16, so I epxect Peterson to look much better today.
Julio Teheran has look fabolous with a 1.53 ERA in six starts, but the Brewers have only given him 1.83 average runs per game in those starts.
Give me the Mets on the ML at -140 odds out to -150.
Pick: Mets ML (1u)
Michael Kopech O/U 15.5 Outs vs. Angels
We cashed on Cease yesterday Over 16.5 Outs and I will run it back on Michael Kopech Over 15.5 Outs tonight.
Kopech is having a stellar June with a 2.66 ERA but only lasted 8.1 innings over his last two starts, running into the Mariners and Rangers. Prior to that, Kopech went 5.0 and 7.0 innings versus the Marlins and Tigers, allowing two earned runs and totaling 15 strikeouts.
Kopech went 4.1 innings and 102 pitches against the Angels earlier in the season, surrendering five hits and four earned runs, but registering 10 strikeouts to two walks.
The 27-year-old RHP has yet to face the same twice this season, but based off his numbers last year, this should be a better start than his previous versus Los Angeles.
In June, starting RHP have gone at least 5.0 innings (15 outs) in 11 out of 16 games (68.5%) and five out of nine (55.5%) when pitching at Los Angeles. That’s good news for Kopech after what Cease did yesterday.
I grabbed Kopech Over 15.5 Outs at -125 odds and would go up to 16.5 for +100 or better odds.
Pick: Michael Kopech Over 15.5 Outs (1u)
Dinger Tuesday: Freddie Freeman HR (+285)
I won’t lie, Freddie Freeman let me down a few times over the past series versus Houston, but all will be forgiven if a dinger is hit tonight.
Freeman and the Dodgers are playing the Rockies at Coors Field, so the chances of a homer are certainly increased. On the season, Freeman has six at-bats versus Colorado with three hits, three walks and two runs scored, all in Los Angeles.
Connor Seabold takes the mound for Colorado and the 27-year-old gave up four homers in his previous start versus the Braves. Freeman only has two at-bats versus Seabold but registered two singles.
Colorado is 1-5 in Seabold’s last six starts and permitted 21 earned runs in that stretch over 28.2 innings. With a 5.75 ERA and 20 hits and 13 earned runs in June, fade Seabold and back Freeman to rocket one to center.
I threw my $25 on Freeman to hit a homer at +285 odds and you get $5 for every homer hit up to $25, which is likely an even-value (EV) play at Coors Field.
Pick: Freddie Freeman HR (0.25u)
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