Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting the Rangers versus Nationals matchup, plus a ML parlay between the Giants and Guardians taking on the Rockies and Royals.
Patrick Corbin O/U 17.5 Outs vs. Rangers
Patrick Corbin cashed us the Under 17.5 Outs in his last start against the Reds and I will come back to the well here.
Corbin permitted 10 hits and six earned runs over 5.0 innings (93 pitches). The Nats LHP walked three, struck out two and allowed two homers to follow up his best start of the season, a 7.0 inning and no earned run performance against the Mariners.
Texas’ offense is hitting .274 over the past seven games (8th) with 11 homers (T-4th) and 38 runs (T-5th) with top 10 ranks in OPS, SLG and OBP.
The Rangers are even better against LHP, ranking top five on the season in BA (.298), OBP (.366), SLG (.481), OPS (.847), hits (241) and RBIs (138).
Corbin allows a .329 OBA at home along with a 4.95 ERA this season over 10 starts (2-6 record). Following his worst start of the season and right before the All-Star break, I expect the Rangers to give Corbin a tough time.
I played Corbin Under 17.5 Outs at -140 odds and would go down to 16.5 if it moves there for -110 or better.
The last four starting LHP went Under 17.5 Outs versus Texas and 17 of the last 21 (80.9%).
I also played the Rangers -1.5 at -135 odds and would go out to -150. This game is at 12:05 PM ET on Peacock.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 17.5 Outs (1u), Rangers -1.5 (1u)
ML Parlay (-103)
Giants ML vs. Rockies
Guardians ML vs. Royals
I am rolling with two heavy home favorites today for a ML parlay. The Giants and Guardians face two of the worst road teams in all of baseball and bottom three squads overall.
Logan Webb of the Giants owns a 2.36 ERA and .231 OBA at home, and historically Webb’s been a home pitcher his entire career. While the Giants winning ways have declined lately at home with Webb, I like this spot for San Fran against Coloradao.
The Rockies have been outscored 35-24 during a six-game span that resulted in one win and five losses. Colorado is 14-32 on the road this year and with this being a rubber match, I like San Francisco to win.
Kansas City has lost six-straight games and has been outscored 41-13 during that span. The Royals’ offensive struggles won’t get easier facing Shane Bieber as they are 12-34 away from home.
Bieber has a 3.02 ERA and .225 OBA at home this year and had his strongest month of the season in June (.290 ERA and .191 OBA). The Braves got to Bieber in his last start to begin July, but who doesn’t the Braves’ offense get too?
Ryan Yarbrough (6.15 ERA) and Kyle Freeland (4.93 ERA) are the opposing pitchers to both the Giants and Guardians, and are fades when starting.
Colorado has lost seven-straight road games when Freeland pitches and Kansas City is 1-4 when Yarbrough pitches 2.0 or more innings this year.
Yarbrough is coming off the 60-day IL, so it will be a bullpen game for the Royals. Give me the Giants and Guardians in a ML Parlay at -103 odds good out to -120.
Pick: Giants and Guardians ML Parlay (1u)
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