Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting the Diamondbacks and Mets matchup, plus the Guardians hosting the Royals.
Mets (+120) at Diamondbacks (-140): O/U 10.0
Arizona was up 1-0 entering the 9th inning last night and lost 2-1 to New York. The Mets had two hits entering their final inning and strung together three-consecutive hits to steal the win.
Both offenses were non-existent last night for 90% of the game, but I think Arizona’s can show up today versus Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco posted a 6.23 ERA in June over five starts and a .303 OBA. The Mets went 0-5 in those five June starts and lost by one run in four-straight.
Ryne Nelson is coming off back-to-back starts of 7.0 and 7.1 innings for two earned runs and six total hits.
Carrasco is pitching his worst ball of the season right now and Nelson is throwing his best, so give me the DBacks ML at -140 odds and would go out to -150.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (1u)
Royals (+185) at Guardians (-215): O/U 9.0
Kansas City and Jordan Lyles finally broke his dreaded streak of 15-straight losses with a 9-4 victory over the best team in baseball (Rays), makes sense.
However, Lyles will try to win two-straight games for the Royals and avoid being swept by the Guardians.
Over Lyles career versus current Cleveland hitters, the Royals’ RHP owns 51 plate appearances for .267 OBA and 7.8 K% to 9.8 Whiff%.
Lyles’ allowed one earned run in his past two starts versus Cleveland after giving up eight earned runs on nine hits in his first meeting (2021), but Lyles wasn’t nearly as bad in 2022 as 2023.
Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA over 32 starts last year with a 12-11 record. This year, Lyles is 1-11 in 16 starts with a 6.68 ERA.
I risked a 0.5 unit on the Guardians -1.5 at -105 odds. I would go out to -125 on Cleveland to win by two-plus runs.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 (0.5u)
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