Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting the Angels versus Padres matchup, plus the Twins hosting the Royals.
Twins and Padres ML Parlay (+117)
I am fading Kansas City and Los Angeles today as both teams are at disadvantages.
The Royals are looking to avoid a sweep handed to them from the Twins today on the road (12-30 record). Alec Marsh will make his second career start and first on the road after hosting the Dodgers July 30th.
Marsh went 4.0 innings and allowed six hits, five earned runs, five strikeouts, four walks and two homers. Minnesota has eight homers in the last six games and hit three in yesterday’s, 9-3 win.
Los Angeles is without Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout, while attempting to avoid a reverse sweep handed to them by San Diego.
Patrick Sandoval pitches for L.A. and they are 1-7 in his past eight starts. Sandoval posted a 7.11 ERA in five June starts and the only win recorded for he or the Angels was versus the Royals.
The Angels are 1-6 in the past seven games and will likely lose the next three to the Padres and Dodgers. Los Angeles was out-scored, 49-28 during that span.
I parlayed the Padres and Twins’ ML’s for +117 odds and would go down to +100. The Astros are another solid ML option against the Rockies.
I played Minnesota -1.5 at -125 odds as well. Pablo Lopez won his last two starts against the Royals with 15 strikeouts in 11.1 innings.
Pick: Twins ML and Padres ML Parlay (1u), Twins -1.5 (0.5u)
Angels (+150) at Padres (-175): O/U 9.0
Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are now out of the lineup for the Angels, so the offense should be pretty mediocre entering All-Star Weekend.
Over the last seven days and seven games, Los Angeles is hitting .234, which ranks 25th in that span.
The Angels’ 28 runs scored (4.0 per game) is 21st in the seven-day span but second-worst among 14 teams that played seven games.
Seth Lugo will pitch for San Diego and he has decent numbers (.250 OBA, 22.2 K%) in a small sample size (36 PA) against Los Angeles.
Lugo has never started against the Angels, so this will be a first, but this lineup is ideal without Rendon and Trout. Lugo allowed four total earned runs in his past three starts for a 2.25 ERA and .238 OBA over 16.0 innings.
Give me the Angels Team Total Under 3.5 at -105 odds good out to -140. This should be 3.0 or 2.5 juiced to the Over.
Shohei Ohtani suffered a blister on his finger last night, but is in the lineup for this game. Today is his birthday so sprinkling a home run is a fun way of backing the Angels, but that’s the only way I could.
Pick: Angels Team Total Under 3.5 (1u)
Leans: Blue Jays ML (-120), Diamondbacks ML (-115)
I might end up playing these two games later in the evening pending lineups.
New York has struggled all season on the road with LHP and that’s the case versus Tommy Henry tonight, plus Arizona has won six-straight Henry starts and 10-3 on the season.
Lance Lynn and Jose Berrios meet up for a much anticipated pitching duel. With Toronto’s lineup having a ton of experience versus Lynn and the Blue Jays winning six of the past eight Berrios’ starts, the White Sox may be worth a fade pending the lineup.
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