Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for the July 4th card, including Kyle Freeland vs Houston, Patrick Corbin against the Reds and Zack Greinke taking on the Twins.
Kyle Freeland O/U 16.5 Outs vs. Astros
Kyle Freeland posted a 6.49 ERA and .305 OBA over his last five starts and statistically in terms of ERA, OBA, K to BB ratio with no wins recorded, June was his worst month of the season.
In the past four starts, Freeland has gone 5.0 or fewer innings pitched (15 outs) and allowed 17 earned runs on 28 hits.
Freeland only has one career start versus Houston and it came in 2020 (6.0 IP, 18 outs).
Houston is top 15 in BA, OPS, OBP, SLG, BB, Ks and home runs versus LHP this season. In June, Houston ranked top 12 in all those categories overall and has started July with six homers and 19 RBIs in three games (.260 OBA).
When LHP visited Houston this year, they’ve gone 9-5 to the Under (64.2%) on the season and 4-1 to the Under (80%) since the start of June.
I played Freeland Under 16.5 Outs at -115 odds as he’s gone Under this in four-straight overall starts and Houston is hitting well.
Pick: Kyle Freeland Under 16.5 Outs (1u)
Patrick Corbin O/U 17.5 Outs vs. Reds
Patrick Corbin is coming off his best start of the season, allowing zero earned runs for the first time all year.
Corbin went 7.0 innings (18 outs) against the Mariners and held Seattle to five hits and recorded nine strikeouts. In June, Corbin posted a 4.66 ERA despite that stellar start, so his problems aren’t solved by one good outing.
Cincy hitters own 65 plate appearances versus Corbin for a .316 BA, 13.8 K%, 9.2 BB% and 18 hits to 9 strikeouts.
For Corbin’s career, he is 10-2 to the Over 17.5 Outs (83.3%) in 12 starts against the Reds with three-straight Overs.
Despite that powerful stat , we need to recognize this is not the same Reds’ team as years past. In the last 30 days, Cincy ranks top seven in hits, runs, homers, RBIs, BB, SB, BA, SLG, OPS and OBP.
Not to mention, Cincy is 5-1 in the last six games and 17-4 in the past 21 games. I played Corbin Under 17.5 Outs at +120 odds and would go to -110 for this. I like the value.
The Nationals lost four-straight with Corbin on the mound until his previous start. I lean the Reds ML (-115) and Team Total Over 3.5 (-140) as alternative options.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 17.5 Outs (1u)
Zack Greinke O/U 15.5 Outs vs. Twins
Zack Greinke allowed 11 hits, two hits, two walks to no strikeouts in his previous start, going 6.0 innings (18 outs) and breaking an eight-game losing streak for the Royals with him on the mound.
However, I am back to fading Greinke. On the road, the 39-year-old RHP is 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA in eight starts this season and 7-1 to the Under 15.5 Outs (87.5%).
Greinke faced the Twins earlier this season as the home pitcher and recorded 5.1 innings (16 outs), but that was back in March.
The Royals’ pitcher has 151 plate appearances versus current Twins’ hitters for a .248 OBA, 19.9 K% and 35 hits to 30 strikeouts.
In his last four trips to Minnesota since 2022, Greinke went 4.0 innings (12 outs) or fewer three times.
Minnesota exploded late in last night’s win versus Kansas City and I expect the Twins to make contact with Greinke early and take control of this game.
I grabbed Greinke Under 15.5 Outs at -140 odds and would go out to -150. Also, give me the Twins on the run line at -1.5 for -115 odds once again.
Pick: Zack Greinke Under 15.5 Outs (1u), Twins -1.5 (0.5u)
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