Vaughn Dalzell shares his three favorite bets on the slate, the Marlins, Guardians, and Red Sox.
Marlins (-110) at Cardinals (-110): O/U 8.5
Sandy Alcantara has five career starts versus St. Louis and permitted two or fewer earned runs in all five games.
Miami is 1-4 in those five meetings versus St. Louis, but Alcantara has pitched well as of late with three earned runs in his last two starts versus Philly and Baltimore.
The Marlins need an impressive start from their ace, but may not need it as Miami takes on Dakota Hudson.
Hudson makes his first start on the year and has only pitched 10.0 innings with 3.1 innings and 52 pitches being his season-highs.
St. Louis will likely keep Hudson on a pitch count here and Miami already saw him once and recorded two earned runs on him, the only two allowed in four games.
I played the Marlins ML at -110 odds after it flipped from +110. I lean the Under 2.5 Earned Runs at -130 odds on Alcantara.
Pick: Marlins ML (1u)
Guardians (-135) at Pirates (+110): O/U 8.5
Pittsburgh has lost five straight GAMES since the All-Star break and is 1-9 in the last 10 games, plus 2-12 in the previous 14 outings.
There isn’t much talent on the Pirates’ offense and with Rich Hill taking the mound, Pittsburgh is a home underdog once again.
The Guardians have outscored the Pirates 21-1 in this series thus far and I have my doubts Hill limits the damage after permitting 18 earned runs in the past five starts (6.08 ERA).
In five road starts for Civale, he sports a 1.69 ERA and .198 OBA. In July, Civale owns a 1.50 ERA and .159 OBA in three starts.
The pitching and hitting matchup favors Cleveland, so give me the Guardians on the ML at -135 odds to sweep the Buccos.
Pick: Guardians ML (1u)
Red Sox (-225) at Athletics (+190): O/U 8.5
Oakland is 1-8 in the past nine games after escaping yesterday with a 3-0 victory versus Boston.
This will be the series finale, which usually points to fading Oakland, and with the A’s coming off a win, this is an even better spot trend-wise.
Brayan Bello goes for Boston and the Red Sox are 5-1 in the past six games and 5-1 in his six road games. Bello sports a 3.13 ERA on the road and .245 OBA, plus a 3-1 record.
Boston has won eight out of 10 games with Bello on the mound by two or more runs this year and I expect it to happen again. I grabbed the Red Sox on the run line of -1.5 at -130 odds and would go out to -150.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (1u)
Start off your Sunday with MLB Sunday leadoff on Peacock featuring exclusive games with no blackout restrictions. Check out the schedule now to see if your favorite team is playing and join for one low annual fee.
DON’T FORGET TO CHECK OUT OUR BETTING TOOLS:
Live Odds: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL
Player Props: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL
