Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his Sunday MLB betting card, including Peacock’s Twins vs Orioles matchup, the Dodgers and Royals, plus a NRFI.
Twins (-115) at Orioles (+100): O/U 9.0
Baltimore’s lost two straight to Minnesota after dropping Saturday’s contest, 1-0, so the Orioles look to avoid the reverse home sweep.
The O’s offense sputtered against Bailey Ober but should be able to nail down Sonny Gray. Gray has allowed at least five hits in seven of the past eight games and three or more earned runs in four of the previous six starts.
On the other side, Cole Irvin tosses for Baltimore and he’s not as bad as his 1-3 record and 7.18 ERA indicate.
The O’s haven’t let Irvin off the leash lately, but if this is a bullpen game, it doesn’t change my opinion as Baltimore has the edge there.
The Orioles have not been swept at home all season, so I will take the insurance on Baltimore’s run line as they look to stop a four-game losing streak with the All-Star break a week away.
I played the O’s +1.5 for -155 odds. I would go out to -175 but only risk 1.5 units. I like the ML to -110 as well. This game is on Peacock at 12:05 PM ET.
Pick: Orioles +1.5 (Risk 1.5u)
Dodgers (-195) at Royals (+165): O/U 9.5
The Dodgers dropped Game 2 of their series versus the Royals on Saturday, 6-4, so this is the rubber match for the series victory.
Tony Gonsolin and Brady Singer take the mound and both have successful histories versus opposing hitters for this matchup.
However, the two teams have been hitting far different over the last six games.
Los Angeles is hitting .277 (6th) compared to Kansas City’s .176 batting average (last).
The Dodgers have scored a league-high 36 runs over the past week, while the Royals scored 16, which is the second-fewest.
With how Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and a few others are hitting, give me the Dodgers to take the final meeting of the series.
I risked 1.5 units on the Dodgers -1 at -165 odds and lean the -1.5 at -125 or better.
Pick: Dodgers -1 (Risk 1.5u)
Yankees (-115) at Cardinals (-105): O/U 8.0
I have not played a No Run First Inning (NRFI) all year, but today seems ideal.
Both the Yankees and Cardinals played a double-header yesterday and have two of their better pitchers on the mound to wrap up their three-game series.
Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery are the starters and while both the Cardinals and Yankees are two teams that are better bets to the Yes Run First Inning (YRFI), these two should shut the top of the order down.
Montgomery used to pitch for New York, so he should be prepared out the gate for the Yankees’ top hitters.
For Cole, the Yankees’ ace owns a .194 OBA over 70 plate appearances versus Cardinals’ hitters, so I like him to keep it scoreless through one inning.
The Yankees ranked last in batting average for June (.208) and scored the second-fewest runs (88).
The Cardinals scored the third-fewest runs (92) but had a better batting average (.244, 18th).
Give me the NRFI for -120 odds in Yankees versus Cardinals. Enjoy the quick sweat if you’re tailing!
Pick: Yankees and Cardinals NRFI (1u)
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